President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) arrive a week into the second round of the presidential election with the challenge of mobilizing their supporters so as not to lose votes in states that have already resolved local disputes.
Without the race for governor, the campaign structure becomes less robust. This occurs in the three largest electoral colleges in Brazil, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, where the local election ended on October 4th. Everyone gave Flávio an advantage in the first round.
This year, only six federation units will have a second round to define state governments.
Flávio's campaign is betting on elected governors to rally the base. The concern in the PL, for example, is that non-Bolsonaro voters in these places do not feel encouraged to leave their homes to vote only for Flávio.
Another reason for attention to abstention is that, according to a Quaest survey released last Wednesday (14), 43% of voters who canceled, voted blank or did not go to the polls declare their vote for Lula. On the other hand, 38% declare their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro.
One wing of Flávio's campaign is less alarmist. It should be noted that the 2022 election was the only one in the recent past with a drop in abstention between rounds, going from 20.9% to 20.5%.
In 2018 and 2014, the movement was opposite: more voters stopped voting in the second round.
This group believes that Lula may face difficulties in the Northeast. The PT member leads in the region, but only in Rio Grande do Norte will there be a second round.
After a wave of optimism among Flávio's allies due to the lead of 2.2 million voters in the first round, the pro-Lula mobilization, on the streets and on the networks, raised an alarm behind the scenes of the PL and with that the counterattack intensified.
The Bolsonarist's team created the WhatsApp channel "Tropa do Flávio", in response to the "Lula's Army", led by deputy André Janones (Rede-MG), and established a calendar of events across the country.
There is also a focus on holding street rallies, in response to the pro-PT protests that spread across the country. To do this, Flávio relies on the so-called "blocks", called by allies, such as deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG).
On this front, the idea is to give prominence to the rally on Sunday (18), on Avenida Paulista, in which the aim is to bring together senators and governors elected across Brazil.
An aide to the senator said he hopes the prospect of power will influence elected politicians to jump into the presidential campaign. The demand on elected allies is also made on the networks, and increased with the creation of the "Flaviometer" by deputy Gustavo Gayer (PL-GO).
This is a website that uses artificial intelligence to measure whether profiles are asking Flávio for votes or not and also creates a ranking with the winners of mentions of the presidential candidate.
The PL candidate himself has insisted, in speeches and interviews, that the election has not been won. He has asked each voter to vote again on the 25th and bring at least one extra person.
LULA BETTS ON BASE CANDIDATES
Behind in the first round, Lula and his campaign have shown strength of reaction on the networks and in the streets. In meetings held since the results of October 4th, the PT team has asked for mobilization of the elected candidates and also those who were defeated.
The expectation is that the surveys will reflect the street mobilizations of recent days. The campaign wants to map, based on these results, where the president has the greatest chances of increasing his votes.
Lula's team distributed local goals, including for candidates who did not win mandates. In the case of the Northeast, the president counts on allied governors to help mayors keep free public transport lines active on election day. The free pass is determined by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).
One of the cases is that of Renan Filho (MDB). He lost the race for the Government of Alagoas, but was tasked with maintaining local political mobilizations. Allies believe that it is possible to improve the result and get closer to the voting levels that the PT member had in other elections.
One of the instructions is to reinforce with the population the information that voting in the second round is faster than in the first. "We are going to increase participation because the first round is very complex, there are many queues, it takes time to vote. There are people who spent two or three hours in line. Not now, it's just one vote", said senator and former minister Camilo Santana (PT-CE), member of the hard core of the PT campaign.
Another point of investment is the recent achievements of government proposals in Congress: the end of the 6x1 scale and the increase in the limit and debt forgiveness for MEIs (Individual Microentrepreneurs).
The investment is concentrated, for now, in important electoral colleges to which the PT member already plans to travel, such as Minas Gerais. Northeastern states such as Bahia, Maranhão and Pernambuco are also on the radar and could still be included in the itinerary, according to the campaign's general coordinator, Edinho Silva.
Among the bets to reduce abstention is the direct confrontation between Lula and Flávio in the debates. For PT members, this type of clash, which did not occur in the first round, has decisive potential for undecided voters.
There is a special concern of the PT campaign with the elderly electorate. Lula has support in this social stratum, but abstention from this group tends to be greater.
