Lula faces low approval despite improvement in economic indicators

Lula cannot win the approval of the majority of the population even with an improvement in economic indicators. Unemployment records the lowest rates in the historical series and inflation is lower when compared to the end of Jair Bolsonaro's (PL) government.

A survey by g1 with economic data, voting intention research and government evaluation since 1989 shows how much Brazil repeats the 2022 scenario in the 2026 elections.

Lula is slightly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), considering the most recent Datafolha survey before the first round of the race for the Presidency.

At this point, the scenario is better than it was for then-president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in 2022. On the eve of the election, the former president was in second place in voting intention polls. However, the government's evaluation at the time was almost as bad as Lula's current one.

In September 2022, 40% considered Jair Bolsonaro's government to be bad or terrible. Those who considered Bolsonar's management to be good or excellent were 37%. Today, 41% have a negative assessment of Lula's third administration. Another 35% consider the current government to be good or excellent.

The end of the 2022 election was a historic milestone in relation to presidents seeking re-election. Jair Bolsonaro was the first to attempt the feat and fail.

Lula has had low approval ratings during his third term. A contrast in relation to Lula's last stint as president. In 2010, when he was still president and handed over the government to his successor, Dilma Rousseff (PT), the president achieved more than 80% approval.

In the quarter ended in August, the most recent data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 103.5 million people were employed, the highest level in the historical series. As a result, the unemployment rate stood at 5.3%.

Inflation is also on a downward trend. In August, the index was negative: - 0.32%. The result reinforced a downward trend in prices in the country, with a 12-month accumulated rate of 4.22%. For comparison, in the same period of 2022, the Bolsonaro government recorded inflation of 8.73%.

The Lula government uses the indexes in its campaign in search of a fourth term. It also mentions Brazil's exit from the Hunger Map once again, a fact celebrated by Lula.

Brazil had already left the Hunger Map in 2014. However, with the analysis of data from 2018 to 2020, the UN placed the country back on the list in 2022. In 2025, the UN removed the country from the list, as less than 2.5% of the population was at risk of malnutrition.

Still, the population's assessment does not react to these economic data. One of the indexes that can influence this result is the debt of Brazilian families.

Trying to react, Lula announced a new round of Desenrola, a debt renegotiation program for individuals. The government estimates that debts in these modalities total R$300 billion and intends to reach 50% of this amount, or R$150 billion.