If the industrial and energy sectors have seen a slight rebound in made in France, the overall trend is downward. While in 2010 a good or service purchased in France contained on average 80% made in France, this share will stand at 77.5% in 2024, reports a study published at the beginning of November by Celestin Gancel and Olivier Redoulès of the Rexecode institute.
Like any average, this hides significant disparities. Who are the “winners” and “losers” of made in France in recent years? Elements of answers with Olivier Redoulès.
How do we actually measure “made in France”?
We start from the final products purchased by the French and by the State. These products all incorporate a little foreignness. Conversely, imports may contain a part of made in France: if a German car has an engine block of which certain parts are manufactured here, we take this into account. At each stage of manufacturing, we therefore count France's share of the added value.
The long-term trend is towards deterioration, all sectors combined. This is not specific to France: European countries are in the same situation, while China and the United States are strengthening their made in over the period. There are two causes. First, the internationalization of value chains: our consumption increasingly includes products from abroad, particularly digital ones. Then, competitiveness, which deteriorated until 2016 before stabilizing in the manufacturing sector, under the effect of supply policy.
There was a slight improvement between 2022 and 2024, can we say cocorico?
It is a slight recovery, but rather cyclical. French electricity production has started to rise again, and a large part of the rebound is linked to the restarting of nuclear power. Added to this are the drop in oil and gas prices in 2023 and 2024, and household consumption which has shifted slightly from gas and oil to electricity.
Two sectors have stabilized. The manufacturing industry, first of all, which has gained in competitiveness thanks to supply-side policy. The energy sector, then, which benefits from decarbonization: electricity produced with imported gas or oil is replaced by French production, nuclear, wind, solar or hydroelectric. If I had to pick a big winner, it would be energy. The big loser is financial services, which are increasingly relying on digital technology.
Made in France remains very high in non-market services, that is to say public services and civil servants, but much less in market services. Agriculture has suffered a little in recent years, but I think it is mainly due to poor harvests linked to climatic effects.
What are the prospects for the near future?
The stakes are high because of the ripple effect: one job in a factory creates 1.2 jobs in other sectors, and up to 3 for those in the automobile industry. When we say that industry represents 10% of GDP, that is true, but that does not measure these knock-on effects.
Looking ahead, energy and electricity are expected to continue to strengthen. We can also think that internationalization is running out of steam, due to questions of sovereignty and the geopolitical situation. But sectors are increasingly using digital technology, and in particular AI: anything that uses it will lose its made in France status, which is particularly true in services. The automobile industry should also suffer from the arrival of Chinese overproduction on the European market. Chinese products have moved upmarket, which poses a global threat to the industrial sector.
Some good news, however: data centers allow us to keep a bit of digital technology made in France. The potential of the sector is estimated at 210 billion euros.
