Magdalena Andersson and the first test of government formation

The air is buzzing about who wins and loses from being the first to be tried as prime minister. Will she find it more difficult to become a candidate in a fourth ballot? Or is the third one the best? That's how it sounded.

In reality, there is nothing that prevents the Speaker from bringing the same party leader before the Riksdag several times, not even several times in a row. It happened with Stefan Löfven in 2018-2019. Altogether, the Riksdag voted three times on Löfven. After first being impeached and then beaten in another vote, he won the third vote of government formation. Ulf Kristersson only got one chance - which he lost.

There is only one number that governs the formation of the government – ​​the distribution of mandates in the Riksdag. No Houdini trick in the world can help the parties struggle out of the straitjacket of mandates. And as long as no party switches sides – there are no signs of that at all – the next government will rest on the 176 mandates that S, V, MP and C received from voters in the election.

"Agreement" can mean anything between loving and accepting

Therefore, it is logical that Magdalena Andersson is forced to a first vote. She is the only one with the mandates – all that remains is the small task of sewing them together into a functioning government document.

According to Andreas Norlén, he and Andersson agree on the arrangement. But "agree" can mean anything between loving and accepting. It is understandable if Andersson grinds her teeth, she had won more negotiation time and found it easier to hold talks in the shadow of a failed Kristersson attempt. In passing, Kristersson had also been forced to dismiss the speculation that the Center wants to switch sides.

Now it will be the S leader's job to extinguish the Centre's hopes and inform Thand Ringqvist of another unpleasant truth – that there are no parliamentary prerequisites for the center government the Center would like to keep alive. When things start to clear up, Thand Ringqvist is forced to deal with the parties that actually want to govern with the Center.

Hardly anyone believes that Andersson succeeds in his first attempt. Neither the Center nor the Left Party would gain from dropping their most important demands so early in the process. You cannot draw a red line before you have shown your party and your voters that you fought to the limit to keep it - and then got paid very well to let it go.

The pressure increases and forces the red-green parties to find solutions

The S leader must report to the Speaker on 12 October. If Andersson cannot then show that she has achieved fruitful negotiations, she will be voted down by the Riksdag just a couple of days later.

Whether she has, or does not have, a solution, she must tell the Riksdag which parties will form part of her intended government. In the absence of an agreement, it speaks volumes that Andersson will then propose a social democratic one-party government to the Riksdag. Another possibility is an S/MP government. In both cases, the Riksdag will vote no.

But - as the research says - also a failed attempt to move things forward. The pressure increases and forces the red-green parties to find solutions.

Now there will be a rush in the negotiation rooms. What you don't have in your head before the election, you have to have in your legs after the election.