As regards Istat, the president of Istat Francesco Maria Chelli carried out an extensive examination of the measures in the hearing. Here are some pointers. With the extension of the Flat tax threshold for VAT numbers from 85 thousand to 100 thousand euros, the 55 thousand taxpayers who could enter the flat rate regime will have a tax saving of 8 thousand euros compared to the application of the ordinary regime with Irpef and additional taxes. The change will lead to a reduction in revenue estimated at around 400 million. While the increase for 2027 alone in the second Irpef bracket with a rate of 33% up to 55 thousand euros will have an impact on an audience of around 3.7 million taxpayers and will lead to a reduction in revenue of just under 1.7 billion, with an average benefit of around 450 euros. The estimate of fiscal drag for 2027 and 2028 could amount to 5.4 and 3.5 billion respectively, while for 2026, with an inflation hypothesis of 3.4 percent, it reaches 6.5 billion. On the pension side, however, 3.5 million pensioners will receive an average of 510 euros less gross in 2027.
Istat underlined that, comparing the current regime with the one proposed in the amendment, it is estimated that the pensioners involved will be just over 3.5 million, who will receive on average around 510 euros less in gross annual pension payments in 2027 than they would have received if the tiered calculation system had remained. «The change to the revaluation mechanism - Istat remarked - by reducing the amount of pensions, leads to a lower taxable income and therefore a lower tax due. This fiscal feedback effect amounts on average to 220 euros of lower direct taxes, according to the current Irpef regime, with an average loss of 290 euros. Taking into account jointly the modification of the Irpef foreseen in the art. 9 and the changes to the revaluation, for the group of pensioners subjected to the effects of both measures, there would be a lower tax of around 360 euros per year, a benefit which would reduce the average loss to 150 euros per year".
Istat estimates that the mix of Irpef reduction, pension revaluation and bonuses for mothers envisaged in the budget impact one in four families (6.5 million) and entail an average benefit of around 250 euros. The "peak" is recorded in the fifth of families with the lowest incomes: over three quarters of the families involved are placed in the highest two fifths of the distribution, by virtue of the fact that the Irpef reform affects taxable incomes above 50 thousand euros and the change to the revaluation on relatively higher pensions.
In reality, the average figure is the result of two components moving in an opposite direction. For an audience of almost 3 million families, an average loss of just over 200 euros is estimated, these are families where there are pensioners who do not benefit from the Irpef reform. For the remaining 3.5 million families the average benefit is 600 euros; in the lowest fifths of income there is a significant effect of the 100 euro bonus for working mothers and in the highest the effect of the increase in the threshold of the second Irpef bracket.
According to Istat, there are just under one million working mothers who will be entitled to an average of around 1,100 euros per year in 2027. There are 820 thousand female workers who have already received the benefit of 60 euros per month in 2026 and it is estimated that the latter will receive approximately 460 euros more per year in 2027. The remaining beneficiaries (160 thousand) will go from receiving a total contribution exemption which entailed, net of tax feedback, an average annual benefit of 1,500 euros, to receiving an average 1,100 euro bonus, therefore 400 euros less.
