US Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicks off a three-day visit to India on Monday in the finance hub of Mumbai, before heading to Jamnagar, home to a major oil refinery owned by industrial titan Reliance Industries.
Rubio's business-oriented visit comes as trade talks remain stalled amid continued ambiguity on punitive measures from the US over India's purchases of Russian oil.
Reliance is a top buyer of Venezuelan oil. The refinery can process 1.4 million barrels of crude oil a day, making it a valuable exporter of diesel fuel for global markets. The refinery has also been a major buyer of Russian Urals crude, making it a significant part of India's energy relationship with Russia.
In March, Washington unveiled plans for a new oil refinery in Texas, backed by Reliance.
US President Donald Trump has put the value of the project at $300 billion (€258 billion) and presented it as a way to help reduce the US trade deficit with India. Whether the project moves forward, and on what terms, will be closely watched.
An elusive US-India trade deal
Since taking office for a second time in 2025, Trump has gone back and forth on tariff threats with India over what he considers to be unfair trade practices, along with India's continued purchases of Russian oil amid the war in Ukraine.
In February 2026, Trump announced a "trade deal" that slashed US tariffs on Indian goods, in exchange for India lowering trade barriers and halting purchases of Russian oil. Trump had claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil. However, this has never been confirmed by New Delhi.
While maritime data from Kpler, a commodities and energy-market intelligence company, showed Indian refiners briefly diversified supply away from Russia to avoid tightening sanctions, India's deep reliance on discounted Russian crude continues to be a cornerstone of its energy strategy. Russia remains India's top supplier of crude oil.
In mid-September, Trump signed the "Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act," imposing 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil and gas, which includes India.
However, last week, just days before the legislation was due to go into effect, Trump signed an executive order pausing the sanctions.
Rubio: Trade deal 'close'
Before traveling to India, Rubio was in Uzbekistan for a meeting of the "C5+1" diplomatic platform comprising the US and five Central Asian countries. In remarks on the sidelines, Rubio said trade talks with India are taking place with the sanctions waivers in mind.
"We have had to waive sanctions over the past few months, looking at the global supplies, looking at global prices, and the impact it was having on other countries," he said.
"We're trying to finalize a trade deal with India right now. We're very close to doing that," Rubio added.
In an interview with Indian broadcaster NDTV, US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said that Jamnagar could be a valuable source of diesel for the US.
Foreign policy analyst C Raja Mohan of Jindal Global University told DW that Rubio skipping a visit to the Indian capital in favor of Mumbai and Jamnagar should not be considered a diplomatic snub, as the refinery has international importance amid the global energy crunch brought on by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
He said Jamnagar is an "important node in global trade" because it processes Russian oil and serves as a conduit for refined Russian petroleum products reaching Western markets.
Although Trump's sanctions reprieve offers New Delhi temporary relief, the underlying threat remains. Washington retains the option of imposing punitive tariffs, leaving Russian oil as a potential source of leverage in wider trade negotiations.
Former Indian ambassador to the US, Meera Shankar, cautioned against reading too much into Rubio's decision to skip Delhi amid political criticism in India.
"The focus of his current trip is on energy, and he is visiting the Reliance refinery in Jamnagar," she told DW.
"The high price of fuel, particularly diesel, has become a political liability for the Trump administration, which wants to be seen taking action on this issue," Shankar said.
Diesel prices have skyrocketed around the world following the Iran war and the ensuing disruption of supply from the Middle East. In waiving Russia sanctions, Trump has tried to blame Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities as being the cause of high prices.
Shankar pointed to Reliance's proposed Texas refinery, noting that the state is "one of the states in play" in the upcoming midterm elections in the US.
"Some forward movement on the investment would be welcome," she said.
Trump eroding trust in Delhi?
The two governments continue to describe their ties as a comprehensive global strategic partnership spanning defence, trade, technology and energy.
Analyst Mohan argued that describing the US-India relationship as uniquely transactional was misleading.
"Every nation ultimately acts out of national self-interest, rather than pure altruism or shared values," he said. The current friction, in his view, is part of a normal negotiation between two sovereign powers, not proof that the partnership was failing.
Besides Russian oil, another potential area of complication is the Trump administration suspending a scheme allowing US companies to sponsor skilled foreign workers.
On October 8, the Trump administration suspended new and pending applications under the US Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) program at several technology companies amid investigations into alleged visa fraud and the displacement of US workers.
The process is a key step for employers seeking permanent residency for foreign staff, including Indian professionals.
Harsh Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation (ORF), said Trump's own words and actions had damaged ties despite regular high-level engagement.
"Even as he calls Prime Minister Modi a good friend, he has damaged the relationship by targeting India and his supporters have been targeting Indians," Pant told DW.
Pant said inconsistent messaging from Washington was eroding trust and could have consequences well beyond Trump's presidency.
"The sense that America is unreliable, that America can't be trusted, is beginning to come back into policy discourse," he said.
The damage, he warned, could reach beyond government-to-government relations to Indian students, professionals and the middle class, whose goodwill has helped sustain ties through earlier disagreements.
"If public sentiment goes against a country, then it becomes very difficult for the policy-makers to craft an alternative policy,” Pant said, adding that US actions affecting Indian students and professionals "will have consequences."
