Marine Le Pen leads in all 2027 French presidential election scenarios, poll shows

PARIS, August 29. /TASS/. Marine Le Pen, the National Rally’s presidential candidate, could win France’s 2027 presidential runoff regardless of her opponent, according to a poll conducted by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche.

Among 1,500 French adults surveyed online from August 26-28, 52.5% said they would vote for Le Pen in the second round if she faced former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, the candidate of the centrist Horizons party. Philippe is considered the most likely contender to advance to the runoff against the National Rally candidate and is seen as having the strongest chance of defeating her.

Le Pen’s projected margin is wider against other potential opponents. She could win 57% of the vote against former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, the Renaissance candidate, or against Raphael Glucksmann, leader of the center-left Place Publique party. In a runoff against Jean-Luc Melenchon, the candidate of the left-wing France Unbowed party, Le Pen could secure 69.5% of the vote, according to the poll.

Le Pen also leads in the first round. The pollsters examined six scenarios involving different combinations of candidates and political forces. In all six, Le Pen comes first, with between 34% and 35.5% of the vote.

Melenchon ranks third in three scenarios, with 14-14.5%, while placing second in the other three. Philippe comes second in every scenario in which he runs, with between 17% and 20.5%. If Attal remains in the race, however, he is projected to narrowly trail Melenchon, with 14.5%.

The first round of France’s presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff on May 2.

President Emmanuel Macron will be ineligible to seek a third consecutive term in 2027 under France’s constitutional two-term limit.