Contrary to pre-market indications, the DAX rose moderately at the start of trading and was even trading above the 25,400 point mark. The profits for the individual stocks extend across all sectors. Only the index members Infineon and Siemens Energy, which are considered German AI beneficiaries, are giving in more strongly.
Semiconductor stocks had already been sold off the evening before on Wall Street and today in Asian trading. Investors fear new competition from China and have long viewed the high valuations in the sector with suspicion.
At the beginning of the week, the German leading index had already gained almost 0.8 percent to 25,277 points - and also defied an increase in oil prices. The MDAX of medium-sized companies rose by around a quarter of a percent and thus passed the 30,000 point mark again.
But the risks remain, as an end to high energy prices does not seem to be in sight. On the contrary: the attack by the Yemeni Houthi rebels on the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh points to further escalation in the Middle East. After the renewed attacks, North Sea crude oil Brent and US light oil WTI initially rose in price between 1.3 and 1.5 percent to around 106 and 93 dollars per barrel. The prices are currently slightly lower.
German inflation also remains at a high level due to high energy prices. Goods and services rose in price by 3.3 percent compared to the same month last year, after 2.9 percent in August, as the Federal Statistical Office confirmed its earlier estimate. It is the highest level since 2023.
“The development of energy prices was once again responsible for the increase in the inflation rate,” said the President of the Statistics Office, Ruth Brand. “The increase in prices was particularly evident for mineral oil products at gas stations and for heating oil.”
Interest rate expectations on the markets also remain closely linked to the development of inflation. A rate of 3.3 percent is well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2.00 percent. Further interest rate increases are therefore likely, especially since the ECB always focuses strictly on data.
In addition to the geostrategically difficult world situation, investors are also looking ahead to the start of the US reporting season, which starts with the quarterly figures from the major banks before the start of trading on Wall Street. Four of the six major US houses, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and the leading investment bank Goldman Sachs, are opening their books.
In addition, the major corporations Johnson & Johnson, a healthcare giant included in the leading Dow Jones index, as well as the country's largest health insurer, UnitedHealth, also report.
“The big themes to watch in earnings season are how companies are using and benefiting from AI,” said Clark Bellin of Bellwether Wealth. It is also important whether they maintain or increase their pricing power and how they can deal with the increased credit costs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is currently raising its economic forecast for Germany and the global economy. The IMF now expects Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.3 percent this year, according to the world economic outlook published today at the IMF's annual meeting in Bangkok.
That is 0.6 percentage points more than forecast in July and is in line with the federal government's forecast. The IMF also raised its expectations for global economic performance slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 percent.
The IMF now expects global economic growth to slow slightly less than previously expected, as industrialized countries have shown resilience despite rising energy prices since the Iran war. "The global economy has proven resilient, but that resilience is under pressure and the risks to growth are tilted to the downside," said IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro.
