At the start of the week, the DAX maintains its slightly higher level from Friday and remains above the 25,000 point mark. The German leading index is thus continuing the recovery and is also benefiting from good guidance from Wall Street. At the end of the week, the DAX had gained around 1.1 percent to 25,087 points.
Overall, developments on the bond and oil markets will continue to influence the mood on the German stock market in the new week. “The two central stressors, oil prices and bond yields, are grating on nerves and have led to discounts for stocks and gold, while yields in both the euro area and the USA remain near their highs,” says Claudia Windt from Landesbank Helaba, summing up the fluctuations on the markets.
The expert assumes that the mood will remain tense until at least the beginning of November, and thus until the midterm elections in the United States of America. “Maybe there will be at least a solution to the US-Iran conflict,” she hopes.
Because as long as the war continues, oil prices will fluctuate significantly. Meanwhile, the situation on the bond markets remains delicate, especially since, according to Windt, “there is no short-term solution to the budget deficits that are spiraling out of control.” This affects both the USA and France. "As long as monetary policy has to tighten interest rates due to high oil prices, interest costs will continue to rise and thus put a strain on national budgets."
With the start of the US reporting season, a third stimulus for the direction of the DAX will come into play from Tuesday. The US reporting season, which traditionally starts earlier than in Europe, begins with the banks' earnings reports.
Investors will closely examine the financial institutions' reports and, above all, their outlook, as indications of changes in the market environment are usually reflected in the banks' books at an early stage. "Banks are a good indicator of how loan demand is developing and what the general economic situation is," said Kim Forrest, chief investor at Bokeh Capital Partners.
“This also gives us insight into what the Federal Reserve (Fed) might do,” said Forrest. And on top of that, inflation data in the United States for September could potentially impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans.
In this country, car manufacturers will be the main focus in the new week. VW is in focus today with an investor update during the Paris Motor Show as well as car sales for the third quarter. On Tuesday there will be final signals from VW and its sports car subsidiary Porsche as well as BMW about the past quarter before the period of silence.
The Asian stock markets barely moved at the start of the week given the approaching US reporting season and geopolitical uncertainties. The index of the most important companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen has barely moved recently. There was no trading on the Japanese stock exchange in Tokyo due to the holiday.
Profits on Wall Street
Slightly falling oil prices and easing concerns about the sustainability of the investment boom in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) gave the US stock markets a tailwind on Friday. Declining geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also boosted investor sentiment. US President Donald Trump had assured that the United States would not launch an attack on Iran before the midterm elections in November.
The Dow Jones gained 0.8 percent to 51,654 points. On a weekly basis, the index has increased by almost one percent. The market-wide S&P 500 rose by 0.6 percent to 7,811 points on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 selection index rose by 0.5 percent to 30,883 points, after falling by up to two percent the day before due to AI fears.
Microsoft boss Satya Nadella has called for a kind of “emergency brake” in artificial intelligence (AI) out of concern about a loss of control. A human must always be able to stop or switch off an AI model in the middle of a task, wrote Nadella in a post on the online platform X.
