The outcome of the midterm elections in the USA could initially weigh on the DAX today. The broker IG Markets estimated the leading German index 0.5 percent lower to 25,730 points a good two hours before the opening of Xetra trading. At times during the night it was only seen at 25,532 points.
However, the index is currently recovering somewhat, so the trend is not set in stone. The day before, the DAX had already ended trading with a more moderate loss of almost 0.5 percent at 25,864 points.
The reporting season for companies continues in this country. Several DAX members are opening their books today. In addition to the car manufacturer BMW, which lowered its forecast the evening before, figures from the healthcare group Fresenius, the cement manufacturer Heidelberg Materials, the tire manufacturer Continental and the Internet portal Scout 24 are expected. Numerous company reports are also expected from the MDAX and other European countries.
In the morning, it becomes increasingly clear that the opposition Democrats will win both chambers of the US Parliament. Although the party was expected to win the House of Representatives, the forecasts for the Senate were not so clear. But it is now clear that the majority in the Senate will also change in favor of the Democrats.
In the USA there is now a threat of what Wall Street calls "gridlock" - political standstill. Because on one side there is the Republican US President Donald Trump and on the other there will probably be a Congress dominated by Democrats in the future. At least that's what current projections say. It would be a bitter defeat for Trump personally, because he had turned the general election into a vote on his policies.
The prospect of surprising Democratic successes in the US midterm elections has spooked investors and put pressure on Asian markets. In Japan and South Korea in particular, things have recently gone downhill significantly, with losses of over three percent. In particular, price losses in shares from the artificial intelligence (AI) sector pushed the Japanese Nikkei index significantly into the red.
AI stocks were hit by concerns that Democratic gains could lead to stricter rules on data center projects and curbs on infrastructure spending. "Democrats are gaining seats in some key states, which has fueled fears about stricter regulations on AI infrastructure investments," said Takamasa Ikeda, senior portfolio manager at GCI Asset Management.
At the end of trading, the Nikkei was still able to recover somewhat and closed 1.4 percent lower.
The New York technology exchange Nasdaq's attempt at recovery was successful on Tuesday. In the end, however, the Nasdaq 100 selection index only claimed an increase of 0.7 percent to 28,180 points. This ended a three-day series of bitter losses.
The semiconductor stocks that are in demand again - including the industry giant Nvidia - outweighed the disappointing business statements from Apple and Palantir. The market-wide S&P 500 gained 0.4 percent to 7,568 points. In contrast, the Dow Jones, the leading index of standard stocks, fell by 0.4 percent to 51,786 points.
"In my view, any outcome that is in line with the prediction markets or the surveys at this point should be largely priced in," said Chun Wang, director of multi-asset strategies at asset manager Leuthold Group.
At least President Trump has acknowledged his election defeat - which wasn't necessarily a foregone conclusion in advance. But investors are wondering whether a weakened Donald Trump could possibly tighten the pace against Iran again - which will cause new tensions on the oil market.
However, the price of oil itself hardly reacts to the election. A barrel of North Sea Brent recently cost around half a percent more at just under $103.
The Munich car manufacturer BMW is cutting its forecast again. The profit margin in the car business will be between minus 0.5 percent and 0.5 percent, the company announced after the stock market closed. It is the second time this year that the company has lowered its forecast. Most recently, the people of Munich expected a return of one to three percent.
