Weight loss pen market could triple by 2035 and reach US$22 billion

Progress must be driven by reducing prices and expanding access to treatments, which are still little used in these countries.

According to bank analysts led by Yang Huang, the market in the three countries could grow at an average rate of 15% per year until 2035. The projection takes into account the large number of people with diabetes and obesity in these populations.

Medicines such as Ozempic and Wegovy, from the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, and Zepbound, from Eli Lilly, belong to the class of GLP-1 receptor agonists. These medications imitate the action of a hormone that helps control blood sugar and reduce appetite, and are used to treat diabetes and, in certain cases, obesity.

China and India are among the countries with the largest populations of people with diabetes in the world. According to J.P. Morgan, the two countries account for, respectively, more than 25% and 15% of the cases diagnosed globally. In Brazil, around 12% of adults have the disease.

The three countries also face the rise of obesity. In China, the share of the population that is overweight or obese could exceed 65% by 2030. In India, the obesity rate among adults is expected to reach 11% by 2035.

According to the bank, the expiration of patents, the arrival of generic versions — medicines with the same active ingredient as a reference product whose patent has expired — and price reductions promoted by public policies are making treatments more accessible.

Despite the potential for growth, the use of these medicines is still low in many emerging countries, mainly because of prices.

According to the J.P. Morgan report, less than 0.1% of the Chinese population and less than 0.2% of the Indian population use GLP-1 class treatments. In the United States, the proportion is between 4% and 5%.

Brazil is currently the largest of the three markets, but the expectation is that, by 2035, only 7% to 8% of the Brazilian population with obesity will use medications to treat the disease. In the United States, the projection is around 30%.

J.P. Morgan estimates that China will overtake Brazil by 2027 and become the largest market among the three countries. By 2035, the Chinese market could generate US$13.7 billion (R$68.5 billion), compared to US$8 billion (R$40 billion) in Brazil.

According to the bank, the result should be favored by the large number of people with diabetes in the country and the expansion of coverage of GLP-1 treatments, which can reduce patient expenses.

In India, which currently has the smallest market among the three countries, adoption of the medicines faces obstacles such as high prices, resistance to the use of injectable medicines and slower cultural changes towards these treatments, according to J.P. Morgan.

The bank also highlighted companies that, in its assessment, could benefit from the growth of this market: the Chinese Innovent; the Indian Divi's Laboratories and Torrent Pharmaceuticals; and the Brazilian RD Saúde, owner of the Raia and Drogasil pharmacy chains.