Middle East crude oil exports rebound above pre-war levels despite Hormuz attacks
Quick Look
Middle East crude oil exports excluding Iran exceeded pre-war averages in late September, reaching 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day on four days, driven by alternative routes, ship-to-ship transfers, and increased Red Sea and Fujairah pipeline use, despite ongoing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Iran war led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a 72% drop in seven-day average non-Iranian crude exports within 10 days. Since then, regional exporters have adapted using alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers.
Middle East crude oil exports, excluding Iran, rose back above pre-war levels in late September despite continued attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according shipping data from trade intelligence firm Kpler.
Exports exceeded the pre-war average of about 18 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days in the final week of September, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million bpd, according to the data and analytics platform.
When the Strait of Hormuz closed following the start of the Iran war, the seven-day average non-Iranian crude leaving the region fell by 72% in 10 days, Kpler said.
How was Hormuz bypassed?
The recovery has relied on alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers.
In September, about 40% of crude left the Gulf without crossing Hormuz, compared with only 17% before the Iran war.
According to Kpler, more than 70% of the crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August. In comparison, almost no Gulf crude changed tankers in the Gulf of Oman before the war.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia also increased exports through the Red Sea, while the UAE used its pipeline to Fujairah.
The primary exporters of crude oil in the region were:
Saudi Arabia
the United Arab Emirates
Iraq
Iran, however, remains the major exception, with its exports still well below the pre-war average, primarily due to US policies.
Attacks on ships around Hormuz continue
Meanwhile, attacks on vessels have continued around Hormuz. At least seven incidents have been reported in recent weeks.
On October 1, a tanker, Kazimah III, was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks. All crew members were evacuated safely.
Edited by: Elizabeth Schumacher
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Middle East crude exports will remain above pre-war levels if alternative routes continue to be used effectively
Likely · Within months
Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz will continue in the near term
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- How sustainable are the alternative export routes long-term?
- What is the full economic impact of continued Hormuz attacks on shipping costs and insurance?
- Will U.S. policy toward Iran exports change in the near term?
