Naryshkin argued that European leaders count on the ability to control the escalation of tensions. According to him, propaganda mechanisms and growing confrontation can lead to a situation in which even a minor event will trigger a violent crisis.
"They believe in controlled escalation, a strategy of balancing on the edge, developed by Western intelligence agencies during the Cold War," said Naryshkin, speaking at the 22nd meeting of the Conference of the Heads of Security Agencies and Intelligence Services of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States).
The head of the SWR stated that in such a scenario, diplomacy may stop working and countries may be drawn into a total conflict.
The fault lies with the West
The Russian official also referred to the European Union defense strategy adopted in 2025. He noted that the document assumes, among other things, readiness for a possible large-scale armed conflict by 2030 and indicates Russia as the main threat.
Naryshkin assessed that European politicians and companies are using the narrative about the threat from the East to increase defense spending, expand the army and adapt industry and infrastructure to military needs - this is the Kremlin's standard narrative line. Vladimir Putin and politicians in Moscow often repeat claims about Russia, which has no hostile intentions towards Europe, and NATO countries, which are massively militarizing.
According to the head of Russian intelligence, the West has created the concept of a new "axis of evil" including China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. He also claimed that Europe does not want to accept the multipolar world order and the growing role of organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union or the CIS.
Naryshkin also argued that Western services treat the post-Soviet area as an area of competition with Russia and China. He accused the European Union of trying to undermine stability in the CIS countries by supporting non-governmental organizations, youth initiatives, media and political activities.
In his speech, the head of Russian intelligence called on the services of the Commonwealth of Independent States to strengthen the collective security system before - as he said - the escalation spiral reaches a critical point.
Naryshkin cited the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a situation in which further intensification of the conflict was avoided.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) currently includes: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Moldova has started formally leaving the CIS: its exit is scheduled to be finalized on April 8, 2027. Georgia left the CIS in 2009, and Ukraine did not ratify the organization's statute and ended its participation in its bodies in 2018.
What was the Cuban Missile Crisis?
The Cuban Missile Crisis was one of the most dangerous moments of the Cold War. In October 1962, the USA and the USSR were on the brink of direct nuclear conflict. The Soviet Union secretly deployed ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads in Cuba. They could reach much of the territory of the United States. Cuba, ruled by Fidel Castro, was an ally of Moscow and feared another American attempt to overthrow its authorities after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.
On October 16, 1962, American photos taken by a U-2 reconnaissance plane confirmed the construction of Soviet launchers on the island. President John F. Kennedy rejected the proposal to immediately attack Cuba. Instead, on October 22, he announced a naval "quarantine" of the island - effectively a blockade of ships transporting further Soviet weapons.
Tense negotiations between Washington and Moscow lasted for several days. October 27, known as "Black Saturday", was particularly dangerous: an American U-2 plane was shot down over Cuba, and both powers were increasing their military readiness.
On October 28, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to withdraw missiles from Cuba under UN supervision. In return, the US publicly pledged not to invade Cuba. Unofficially, Washington also accepted the subsequent removal of its Jupiter missiles from Turkey.
