Nationalist forces dominate election in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The nationalist forces will dominate Bosnia and Herzegovina in the coming years - at least that's what it looks like after almost all the votes have been counted.

Nationalist Milorad Dodik's SNSD party was able to win among Serbian voters at all levels. "Thank you very much for this great victory. I declare that we have won - the member of the State Presidium, the office of President of Republika Srpska," explained Dodik. It was an unexpectedly high result for the party. "This means that, together with our coalition partners, we will definitely have a two-thirds majority in the parliament of the Republika Srpska."

Thanks to Putin and Trump

Dodik also thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin - and US President Donald Trump. Trump's government surprisingly lifted sanctions against Dodik in 2025. In the same year, Dodik was removed from his position as president of the Republic of Srpska by a court decision. The background was his efforts to separate the Republika Srpska from the state as a whole.

Dodik, still a strong man in his party, now wants to stick to this line: "Nobody should now ask us to change the political stance that we have represented. Our political positions remain firm and will not be changed."

Will Dodik be pardoned?

Dodik is currently not allowed to hold any political office. However, that could change because the three-member state presidency can pardon him. And nationalist forces now dominate here too: Zelka Cvijanovic from Dodik's SNSD is moving in for the Serbs again. For the Croats, Darijana Filipovic from the Croatian nationalist HDZ will be part of the state presidency. Before the elections, political observers speculated that these two could pardon Dodik if he won the election.

But there was no talk of this on election night. Filipovic began by thanking the Bosniak voters for their election victory: "The Bosniak people have shown that they do not want to be outvoted and the tensions that this causes. I congratulate them for that."

Because of their majority in the Croatian-Bosniak part of the federation, the Bosniaks can be the deciding factor in deciding on two out of three presidents. In the past, moderate Croats often ended up in the state presidency - but not this time.

Bosniak representative is social democrat

Only the Bosniak representative in the state presidency is unlikely to become a nationalist. Denis Becirovic of the multi-ethnic Social Democratic Party moves in again. "Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, thank you for your trust. The freedom-loving, anti-fascist and civil Bosnia and Herzegovina is alive," he said after the election.

In the federal parliament, however, the Bosniak SDA won the election - and thus also a party that stands for division and not unity. The Serbian SNSD became the second strongest force.

Low voter turnout

Voter turnout was extremely low, only around 40 percent. For political scientist Milos Davidovic, this could also be due to the use of new voting technologies, which are said to have prevented vote fraud. On the other hand, the candidates' political offerings may be worse than ever, says Davidovic. "This has led to citizens no longer perceiving elections as something that should actually be a central part of a democracy."

Since the balance of power is unlikely to change significantly, reforms remain a challenge. The path for Bosnia and Herzegovina into the EU is likely to be a long one.