New polling shows Democrats leading in House and Senate races ahead of midterms

New polling ahead of the November midterms show Democrats with a significant lead in House and Senate races.

Polls show Democrats with a 9 point advantage over Republicans when it comes to gaining control of Congress, largely due to Independents leaning towards Democratic candidates in November.

These polls, released by NBC News , come as President Donald Trump has faced his worst approval rating of his second term, with voters especially upset over his management of the economy and foreign policy.

House Democrats have made affordability their central message ahead of the November midterms, with the leader of the House Democrat, Hakeem Jeffries, saying: “House Democrats are running through the finish line to lower the high cost of living. Republicans are running scared. The American people will have the last word.”

While polling shows that partisans are unlikely to change their party affiliation, Independents are particularly frustrated with the direction of the economy, and Democrats are now sitting with a 16 point lead on average with Independent voters.

Trump’s national approval rating sits at 32 per cent according to Reuters, and his approval rating among Independents is even lower, at just 26 per cent, per NBC.

The president campaigned in 2024 on lowering the price of household items and not starting any new wars.

However, the president then entered a war with Iran which has resulted in high gas prices at the pump and rising diesel prices which has impacted the cost of goods because diesel is critical for long-haul trucking.

Even some Republicans are aware that the party is in for a “shellacking” in November, with Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie telling CNN: “[Republicans] they’re about to take a shellacking here in the general election…I think ‘Trump’s] comeuppance will happen on election day, and the day after I think there’s going to be a reckoning.”

The polling from NBC are weighted calculations of all available polls, and serve to give an overview of the national landscape.

While it is fairly typical for the president’s party to lose seats in the midterms, this election is being viewed as a referendum on Trump and Trumpism.

The Republican Party under Trump has affiliated itself up until this point almost entirely with the president and his persona.

However, as his policies have started to sour, this midterm will be a test on whether Republican candidates are willing and/or able to distance themselves from Trump. And, whether voters want to see the party move in a new direction.