NFL longshot parlay picks, bets, player props for Week 5, 2026: Get an epic return of nearly +12,000,000

Astute Commanders fans may have noticed a trend which they could possibly parlay into a Week 5 NFL longshot bet. Washington has seen two games end with a 2-point scoring margin, with the other pair of games ending with a 17-point margin. Thus, one could construct a Week 5 NFL parlay on the exact winning margin as the Commanders host the Giants on Sunday. Either team winning by exactly 2 points carries +1800 odds (risk $100 to win $100), while either squad prevailing by 17 points is a +2500 NFL prop.

That is one of many plus-money Week 5 NFL bets that could go into an NFL longshot parlay. Others include guessing the yardage on the longest touchdown, predicting who tops the game in a certain stat or forecasting what the first scoring play will be. A Commanders TD being the first scoring play returns +182, while a Giants field goal would be +331. Either team starting the game off with a safety would be +6100. Before making any Week 5 NFL picks or parlays, you need to see the Week 5 NFL longshot parlay from SportsLine's proven computer simulation that pays out nearly $1.2 million on a $10 bet.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now that the simulation model has had a chance to digest the Week 5 NFL odds, it's locked in its betting picks to form a seven-leg longshot NFL parlay that could pay out nearly $1.2 million for a $10 bettor. You can only see the picks and full parlay by heading to SportsLine.

Top Week 5 NFL parlay picks

For Week 5, one of the picks featured in the seven-leg parlay at the best betting apps is backing Over 49.5 (+173) on the alternate total in Ravens vs. Falcons. The standard total is 43.5 but the model projects 51 total points, giving you some wiggle room with this NFL pick. Even with Lamar Jackson (ankle) not in the model's projections, the Ravens still have enough to put lots of points on the scoreboard as the team scored 30-plus in both of Tyler Huntley's starts last year.

Meanwhle, Atlanta's scored 35-plus in each of Michael Penix Jr.'s starts this year. Both teams are allowing at least 23 points per game, while the respective offenses can score in a hurry. The Ravens and Falcons each rank in the top half of the league in scoring despite ranking among the bottom six in average plays per drive, meaning they score in a hurry. Also, each squad is in the top seven in both yards per play and redzone scoring as this is an NFL prop worth wagering on. See the rest of the picks in the Week 5 NFL parlay here.

How to make NFL parlay picks for a payout of almost $1.2 million

The parlay also includes six additional picks from Week 5 from SportsLine's computer model, all of which are shorter than +700. You can only see the picks and the full parlay at SportsLine.