NFL odds, picks: Brinson's Week 10 best bets, player props, anytime touchdown scorers for Sunday's matchups

It's game on in the NFC East after Thursday night, with the Commanders downing the Giants in gut-spilling fashion to open up the NFC East race and make it four(-ish) wide with teams vying for that playoff spot. It's not the only division where things are getting spicy either.

The NFC South is tied up, like a bunch of two-wheeled farm tractors limping towards a home playoff game. The NFC North is maybe the best division ever (the numbers back it up!) and will be a thrill to watch at the close, especially with the arms race building up either through trades (Kirk Cousins back to the Vikings, Jeffery Simmons to the Bears) or defensive players returning (Lions and Packers).

The NFC West has a compelling three-team battle of attrition for first place while the Broncos/Chiefs AFC West showdown for an extremely important home-field slot (and maybe more?) should be wildly entertaining given the nature of those two teams. Same with the Bills and Patriots in the AFC East, although Buffalo holds an advantage there.

The AFC North is still anyone's game. Really, the only thing we know right now is the Jaguars look like a lock to win the AFC South. And they pressed their advantage, pushing their chips in for home field and a Super Bowl run.

The large point being, this is setting up for a WILD finish to the 2026 NFL season and Week 10 is a pivotal turning point for a lot of teams. Let's stay hot in this column and find some winners, player props and anytime touchdown scorers!

Best bets for NFL Week 10

Patriots +2.5 vs. Lions

I think the Lions will be pretty chalky here given the performance by the Patriots last week, getting blown out by the Packers at home. And it's not unreasonable! But the Patriots opened -1.5 here according to our SportsLine data, which means this line has just shifted too far. A.J. Brown could be back for this game and while the Lions have gotten better on defense, their offense has cooled a lot since the bye, scoring just 20/19/19 points in the last three weeks. They also feasted on terrible defenses in shootouts early in the season. The Patriots are still a good football team and aside from the Packers, a much better offense than the Lions have seen the last three weeks.

Vikings +2.5 vs. Packers

This is a very fair line given how good the Packers have looked, the fact it's Toyot-A-Thon (when Jordan Love thrives), and the unknown of Cousins' re-addition to the Vikings offense. I'm going to bank on Cousins not skipping a beat in Kevin O'Connell's offense and massively upgrading what Minnesota can do when it has the ball. Carson Wentz made the Bills look like the '85 Bears and Kyler Murray just wasn't the fit in this offense we thought he could be. Cousins played his best ball with KOC and knowing the organization made this move should be motivation for not just guys like Justin Jefferson but the defense too.

Bills vs. Jets Over 50.5

This is the first time in forever the Bills and Jets have had a total over 50. That is, obviously, mostly the Jets fault! But the Jets are ... good on offense now? They're at least vastly more competent than they've been in years and Geno Smith is playing some excellent football. Garrett Wilson is tracking to play here, which gives New York another weapon to attack the Bills. Yes, Buffalo looked like an elite defense against the Vikings in Week 9, but the Jets are a better offense right now. I think this ends up being a sneaky fun game on the early Sunday slate that turns into a shootout at MetLife.

Week 10 NFL player props

Chuba Hubbard Over 80.5 rushing yards

The Saints are one of the premier run funnels in the NFL and have given up some monster games to opposing running backs. Recently, the numbers look better because 1) the Giants benched Cam Skattebo and 2) the Browns had to start Shedeur Sanders and decided to let him throw 31 times. The Panthers will be far more aggressive running the football and have an offensive line that, while it struggles in pass protection, should be able to get downhill for Hubbard. This line is at least five yards too low for Hubbard's skill set, the Saints' weakness, and the Panthers' offensive preference.

Fernando Mendoza Over 12.5 rush yards

The Cousins trade is launching the Fernando Mendoza era in Las Vegas early. There's no way the Raiders wanted him to make his first start against the Seahawks' defense, but the trade price for Cousins was too good to ignore. As such, we're going to take advantage of a sneaky mobile quarterback taking off against a defense that can pressure aggressively. Mendoza hit this number in 11 of 16 games with Indiana last season and sacks count against your rushing total in college, but not in the NFL. Klint Kubiak won't create a gameplan that involves Mendoza being a sitting duck in the pocket against the Seahawks. I think we'll see rollouts with single looks and the option to take off running several times.

Anytime touchdown scorer props for Week 10

Blake Corum (+115)

Yes, I know. Corum appears here every single week. But you know what? He keeps scoring touchdowns and the books keep pricing him at plus money. The Rams are down both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams now, which means they're going to lean even harder into the heavy personnel sets and rushing attack we've seen from them on this winning streak. Corum is a major reason they're on a three-game winning streak, with double-digit carries and a touchdown in every single one of those games.

George Kittle (+115)

Kittle once famously scored three touchdowns and upon scoring one of them, lifted his jersey to reveal a shirt that said "F*** Dallas" -- without the censorship! He was asked this week if he would be wearing the shirt again when the 49ers head to Jerry World and said "potentially" before telling reporters he didn't need a new one because "the old one is 3-0." In other words, Kittle is not a fan of the Cowboys and he gets to play against a bad Dallas defense on a humming Niners offense without a ton of other skill guys. Kyle Shanahan will be scheming him up near the end zone and we get a plus-money number.

Tyler Warren (+190)