NFL Week 1 Betting Preview: Expert Picks and Predictions for Opening Games

Welcome to the 2026 NFL season, and our league overlords have put together quite the opening slate of games for us to enjoy. The Super Bowl rematch on Wednesday night saw the Seattle Seahawks hand the New England Patriots another loss, while we have football in Australia on Thursday night between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, and then a whopping 13 games on Sunday.

Josh Allen has to open up the season against a scary Houston defense, Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones face off in Indy, we get an NFC North matchup right off the bat between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings, and an AFC West showdown on "Monday Night Football" between Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix. So, which teams should you pick in Week 1, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Sept. 7 over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Dajani (Ravens -3.5): A home dog at 3.5 points sings to me like the sirens to Odysseus, but I'm afraid something has tied me to the ship's mast. For one, the Ravens average 33.3 points per game in Week 1 with Lamar Jackson starting. The two-time NFL MVP has averaged the most yards per attempt (9.1) and registered the highest passer rating (120.1) in Week 1 starts since 1970. Furthermore, I have questions about the Indianapolis Colts. Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles, and his new WR1, Alec Pierce, missed most of the offseason work due to ankle surgery. Jonathan Taylor will be ready to rock, but will this passing game sputter against a Jesse Minter-led defense? … Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 23

Dubin (Ravens -3.5): I'm extraordinarily high on the Ravens this year, and comparatively low on the Colts. With Lamar Jackson back at full health, I expect the Ravens to be one of the best teams in the AFC. They always are whenever he makes it through a full season. Their defense should be improved this year with Jesse Minter at the helm, as well. Meanwhile, Jordan mentioned the various injury issues that could hold the Colts back early in the year. It all adds up to a big Ravens win. … Prediction: Ravens 30, Colts 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Dajani (Buccaneers +3.5): My logic here is simple. The Buccaneers have won and covered in Week 1 games over four straight seasons, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals, on the other hand, are 1-5 against the spread in Week 1 when Joe Burrow starts. It's weird, the Bengals barely beat the Cleveland Browns last year (17-16), lost to Jerod Mayo's Patriots in 2024, and fell to the Browns in Cleveland, 24-3, in 2023. Meanwhile, the dark cloud that was Baker Mayfield's future has lifted thanks to a three-year extension. Vibes are high for the Bucs this week. … Prediction: Bengals 21, Buccaneers 20

Dubin (Bengals -3.5): I know the Bengals always start the season slow. And I know that picking them early in the season always leads to regret. But I like this matchup for them offensively, and I think their defense will be improved after they drop Dexter Lawrence into the middle of the defensive line. With the Bucs having Emeka Egbuka coming off a toe injury that kept him out for a bunch of camp, I don't think they keep pace with Cincinnati in the opener. … Prediction: Bengals 27, Buccaneers 21

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Dajani (Vikings -1.5): Full disclosure, I don't understand why people are relatively high on the Packers this year. Their most reliable wide receiver left in free agency, their star running back is on the commissioner's exempt list, their star pass rusher is on the PUP list, and the offensive line has some question marks. We'll see how Kyler Murray fares in his first start with the Vikings, but he has the backing of some great playmakers, plus what was a top-three defense last year. To be honest, this line just confuses me. Vikings win … Prediction: Vikings 22, Packers 16

Dubin (Packers +1.5): I'm pretty lukewarm on both of these teams this year, but I like Green Bay's chances to get off to a hot start offensively in this matchup. This is going to need to be Brian Flores' best coaching job in recent memory, because the defensive personnel on hand is not what it once was. I can see Jordan Love putting on a fireworks show here in the opener, winning a shootout against an also-improved Vikings offense with Kyler Murray replacing J.J. McCarthy. … Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 27

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Dajani (Cowboys -3): The Cowboys are 8-0 all-time in Week 1 primetime games against the New York Giants. The last one came in 2023, when I tried to back Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. They lost, 40-0. Yes, the Giants have reasons for optimism with John Harbaugh and Jaxson Dart, but I have much more optimism when it comes to the Cowboys. I even have them winning the division! We all know about Dak Prescott's offense with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but I think the defense is going to be improved. Caleb Downs is going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, then the other additions of Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Cobie Durant and Malachi Lawrence will make their impacts as well. Maybe Malik Nabers is fully healed and Dart is actually a franchise quarterback, but I'm going to back the Cowboys here under the lights of the Meadowlands … Prediction: Cowboys 28, Giants 23

Dubin (Cowboys -3): I never get sucked into the Cowboys. I always maintain that they're going to be an unserious team. I'm a Cowboys fan, so I know exactly how unserious they've been for 30-plus years now. And yet... I can't help myself this year. I'm in on this Dallas team, with one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL backed by what should be an improved defense coordinated by Christian Parker. I'm comparatively low on the Giants, who have multiple key offensive players coming back from injury in a unit led by Matt Nagy, Greg Roman and Brian Callahan, which isn't exactly a murderer's row of a coaching staff. … Prediction: Cowboys 31, Giants 20

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Dajani (Broncos +3): It's very cool that Patrick Mahomes worked so hard to be ready for the season opener after tearing his ACL in December, and his reward for doing so is having to face one of the best defenses in the NFL that ranked top three in points per game (18.3), yards per game (278.2) and third down percentage (33.8%) last year. Denver has registered 131 sacks over the past two seasons, 33 more than any other team, and will attempt to tee off against a quarterback that probably doesn't have the same mobility he did prior to his injury. It also appears that undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson will start at one of the tackle spots for the Kansas City Chiefs, which is very scary. The Broncos are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against the Chiefs, so I'm eyeing an upset here to close out Week 1 … Prediction: Broncos 17, Chiefs 14

Dubin (Broncos +3): I'm excited to see what Patrick Mahomes looks like in his first game back from injury, but something tells me it could be tough sledding against one of the best defenses in the NFL. I think the Chiefs will have to lean into their Kenneth Walker III-led running game, and it remains to be seen how effective that attack will be. I'm not the biggest Bo Nix fan in the world, but the Broncos offense has undeniably been effective with him at the helm, and I think they have enough to get it done against the Chiefs in Week 1. … Prediction: Broncos 21, Chiefs 20

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

Thursday, 8:35 p.m. on Netflix

Dajani (Rams -3.5): This matchup is much more than just two rival contenders kicking off the season in the land down under. You need to know that this game features two international juggernauts. The 49ers are 3-1 in games outside the United States, having won their last three, while the Rams have also won three straight international games, boasting a +25.0 points-per-game differential in those wins!

Honestly, I'm not expecting fireworks in this star-studded matchup. But I'm leaning towards the favorites. George Kittle is attempting to play after tearing his Achilles tendon about eight months ago, Christian McCaffrey is in the midst of a ramp-up regimen, and Nick Bosa is coming off a torn ACL. I'm just hoping I don't get caught by the hook … Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 20

Dubin (Rams -3.5): The Rams are, unsurprisingly, my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. So original, I know. The roster is just that loaded, though, and I think we are going to see that in terrifying fashion right from the first game of the season. The 49ers, as Jordan mentioned, are still working through some injury returns for some of their key players, and that's not exactly an ideal place to be against a team that comes in at full strength. … Prediction: Rams 31, 49ers 21

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Houston Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Dajani (Texans +1.5): I love the Buffalo Bills and believe they will win the AFC East this year. But I'm also high on Houston and expecting a bounce-back from C.J. Stroud. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, but you don't have to tell Josh Allen that. He's 0-4 against the Texans in Houston in his career, including playoffs, and has two total touchdowns over those four starts. It's actually tied for the most losses by a visiting quarterback in Houston all-time. Give me the Texans in the season opener, who are 4-0 straight up in their last four games as an underdog … Prediction: Texans 23, Bills 21