
AI-generated summary
The report builds on prior trends showing increased diagnosis of ADHD and autism, alongside rising self-harm and eating disorders, while severe mental illness rates remain stable and hazardous drinking declines.
1. Unprecedented and growing levels of distress are real
The report is categoric that mental distress has “increased substantially across the population”, is real and affects everyday functioning, and that the rise “cannot be explained by greater awareness alone”. About one in four 16- to 24-year-olds are now thought to have a common mental disorder such as anxiety and depression, up from one in six in 1993, while self-harm, eating disorders, OCD, PTSD and drug dependence have also increased.
About 4 million children are in “serious distress”, and if current trends continue that could reach 4.5 million by 2030, the report says. At current rates self-harm cases could reach 2.5 million across England’s population. But rates of severe mental illness such as bipolar or schizophrenia have remained much more stable, while hazardous drinking has declined.
2. The system is failing everyone
With the cost of mental ill health standing at £300bn a year, “continuing as we are is not sustainable,” the report warns. “Not for the people waiting weeks, months or years, becoming more distressed because help is locked behind waiting for a diagnosis; not for those with the most severe needs who cannot access specialist care; and not for a society paying the human and economic price of failing to support people to participate in family, community, education and working life.”
3. Overdiagnosis of ADHD and autism is not yet widespread but is a growing risk
While the proportion of the population thought to have ADHD and to be autistic has remained broadly stable at an estimated 3.8% and 1.2% respectively, the recent exponential rise in those diagnosed, as well as even larger numbers waiting to be assessed, means we have reached a tipping point where people are at risk of being misdiagnosed with ADHD and autism, said Prof Simon Wessely, the review’s vice-chair.
The report finds that the proportion of children aged six to 11 with an ADHD diagnosis has increased more than sixfold in five years, and for 12- to 17-year-olds more than 15-fold, to 2.7% and 3.9% respectively. And with more than 560,000 people waiting for an ADHD assessment and more than 254,000 for an autism assessment, the proportion of people with a diagnosis of ADHD or autism is expected to rise further.
“This does not, by itself, establish that overdiagnosis is currently occurring at scale,” the report states. “However, the evidence suggests we are entering a phase in which the balance of risks between underdiagnosis, misdiagnosis and overdiagnosis may be changing, with the risks of misdiagnosis and overdiagnosis becoming increasingly important considerations for policy and service delivery.”
4. Private companies should be banned from advertising ADHD and autism assessments
The report finds that NHS spending on independent-sector ADHD services rose by 252% over three years and that private providers accounted for more than a third of NHS-funded autism assessments in the 2025-26 financial year.
Responding to the report’s call for greater regulation, the health secretary, Yvette Cooper, said the government would “make all diagnostic assessments for ADHD and autism Care Quality Commission-regulated, so people can be confident that assessments are high quality and that the NHS is not being overcharged by independent or private providers”.
She stopped short of committing to banning private-sector advertising of ADHD and autism assessments to the public, instead saying the Advertising Standards Authority would be asked to review it, “to ensure people receive accurate information and are not exploited by companies encouraging them to seek assessments they may not need”.
5. The NHS should provide a needs-first service
Prof Peter Fonagy, the review’s chair, said the NHS needed to shift from a diagnostic labelling model to a flexible, needs-led system. “Diagnosis remains essential and must be protected,” he said, but added: “What has to change is that it is no longer the only door through which help can be reached.”
Instead, people should be able to seek help through school, GP or community services, mental health services, social care, employers and family hubs. Support should be given at the point of need, not contingent on a diagnosis. And there should be a single service for mental health and neurodevelopmental support to provide more joined-up help.
In response, the Department of Health and Social Care committed to a major overhaul of services to ensure “earlier, needs-led support for children, young people and adults, without long waits for clinical diagnosis”.
6. Scrap first-come-first-served waiting lists
Patients waiting for a diagnosis should be prioritised. Rather than a first-come-first-served system, mental health and neurodiversity services should ensure those with the highest needs – such as self-harm, multiple difficulties or risk of imminent school exclusion or unemployment – get specialist assessment sooner.
Waiting lists should be “actively reviewed” to enable that prioritisation. But the authors denied that would leave those with less acute symptoms without any route to diagnosis, stressing: “No one should be removed from a pathway without appropriate assessment, communication and discussion.”
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
If current trends continue, the number of children in serious distress could reach 4.5 million by 2030.
Likely · Within years
Self-harm cases could reach 2.5 million across England’s population at current rates.
Possible · Within years

A government-commissioned review led by Prof Peter Fonagy warns that rising demand for mental health, ADHD and autism care in England is overwhelming the NHS, leading to years-long waits and risks of misdiagnosis, urging a shift to needs-based care and stricter regulation of private clinics.

A major review of mental health conditions in England commissioned by Health Secretary Wes Streeting finds that rising rates of anxiety, depression, ADHD and autism among young people reflect real distress driven by social and economic pressures, not overdiagnosis or a 'snowflake generation' mindset, and warns that overreliance on diagnosis creates unfair barriers to support.

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