Nomura warns US risk premium rising as AI surge falters

The artificial intelligence boom has signalled growing risks in the US economy and capital markets, with a setback in the technology rally potentially triggering a sharp correction in US assets and weakening the dollar, according to a Nomura report.

“The AI boom has masked a rising US risk premium,” Nomura analysts led by Rob Subbaraman said in a report on Thursday, warning that the concentration of global savings in US dollar assets had left investors increasingly exposed to a reversal in the AI-driven US equity rally.

The ratio of US net international investment position (NIIP) liabilities to the combined assets of all net creditor nations has risen to 80 per cent, according to the Japanese investment bank.

US NIIP liabilities reached US$21.9 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 71 per cent of gross domestic product, while the country’s portfolio liabilities have quadrupled to US$37.4 trillion in March 2026 from US$9.2 trillion before the global financial crisis, the bank’s data showed.

“We attempt to debunk the assumed robustness of ‘Tina’,” the bank said, referring to the belief that “there is no alternative” to US assets.

The growing exposure meant a sharp decline in US equities could have broader implications for global capital flows, particularly if foreign investors began to reduce their holdings of US assets, according to Nomura.