Nord Stream sabotage, arrests and trials test Germany-Ukraine relations

Kyiv, Ukraine – The 2022 destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, whose construction cost $19bn, epitomised the failure of “change through trade”, Berlin’s policy of softening Moscow’s hardline leadership through mercantile ties, according to some analysts.

Pressurised gas was pumped from Yamal, Russia’s Arctic peninsula of deer herders and treeless tundra, to Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany’s Baltic region of chalk cliffs and medieval castles.

But on September 26, 2022, several underwater blasts created a kilometre-wide (0.6-mile) bubbling geyser of natural gas that became history’s worst release of methane and screeched the pipeline flows to a halt.

Dubbed an act of sabotage, the apparent operation has drawn the attention of Hollywood director Doug Liman, known for blockbusters such as The Bourne Identity and Mr & Mrs Smith.

Oscar-winning actors Sean Penn and Adrien Brody star in Liman’s upcoming drama, titled Snake Island, about Ukrainian divers who plunge into the Baltic’s blue waters from a sleek rented yacht to blow up the world’s longest undersea pipelines.

Back in the real world, one of the suspected divers, Volodymyr Zhuravlev, a 46-year-old father of three with more than two decades of free-diving experience, was a consultant on Liman’s film set in Croatia. He was arrested in the Croatian city of Pula on August 19 and is to be extradited to Germany.

Last year, another accused member of the sabotage team, Serhii Kuznetsov, was arrested in Italy and extradited to Germany.

The 49-year-old reportedly worked for Ukrainian intelligence and complained that he had been “abandoned by his country and president”.

Their arrests and upcoming trials have highlighted how the sabotage shocked Germany’s economy, overhauled its energy exports and consumption – and still affects ties between Berlin and Kyiv.

“The Nord Stream sabotage reinforced a key lesson from the 2022 energy crisis – Germany had become far too dependent on Russian fossil gas,” Claudia Kemfert, a professor with the Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, told Al Jazeera.

The pipelines were designed to deliver 110 billion cubic metres (3.9 trillion cubic ft) of natural gas a year and made Germany “captive to Russia”, United States President Donald Trump said in 2022.

Nord Stream 2 never became operational but did contain pressurised gas at the time of the explosions. Nord Stream 1 along with other Russian pipelines provided 55 percent of Germany’s natural gas.

It heated homes, generated energy and fuelled the economic pillars of Europe’s largest, export-oriented economy, the chemical and steelmaking industries.

The alleged sabotage “changed the debate on energy security fundamentally”, Kemfert said. “Today, security means reducing fossil import dependence through diversification, renewables, efficiency, grids and storage.”

The crisis also prompted a major, rapid expansion of infrastructure for liquefied natural gas. The latter proved to be a silver lining.

“The central lesson is clear: The less Germany depends on imported fossil fuels, the more resilient its economy and energy system become,” Kemfert said.

‘Politically sensitive’ questions

Meanwhile, the unresolved questions surrounding Nord Stream “remain politically sensitive” in Berlin-Kyiv ties, she said.

After Trump removed Washington from the political chessboard of the Russia-Ukraine war, Berlin became Kyiv’s largest and staunchest Western backer.

But Germany seems adamant about prosecuting the sabotage team.

“It’s a matter of principle for the German government, but it’s also a matter of the rule of law,” Cristian Vlas, an expert with ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), an international think tank, told Al Jazeera.

And Ukraine’s most coveted post-war dream – integration into NATO and membership in the European Union – could be thwarted if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party comes to power.

AfD opposes military and financial aid to Ukraine, wants to block its EU and NATO membership, lift Western sanctions slapped on Moscow for invading Ukraine and resume Russian energy imports.

“We can certainly see the rejection of Ukraine’s application as one of the key points on AfD’s agenda,” Vlas said. “It rejects delivering further military support to Ukraine with the purported pretence that it extends the war.”

EU and NATO integration could be “further in time”, Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera, but the suspected act of sabotage still succeeded in severing the “umbilical cord” of the Berlin-Moscow alliance that hurt Ukraine economically and politically.

In 2008, Berlin and Paris blocked a NATO membership invitation to Ukraine, insisting it would “provoke” Russia.

After Nord Stream 1 was launched in 2011, Kyiv lost half of its annual $3bn in transit fees for Russian gas pumped westwards through Ukrainian pipelines.

Berlin also denied arms deliveries to Kyiv after Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022, Berlin admitted it was wrong about the “change through trade” approach to Moscow’s belligerence.

“We failed on many points,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the ZDF broadcaster in 2022. “It’s true that we should’ve taken the warnings of our Eastern European partners more seriously, particularly regarding the time after 2014.”

After the pipeline blasts, no country or group claimed responsibility, and pundits pointed fingers at Washington, which was opposed to the pipeline’s construction, and Moscow, which some believed would benefit from higher natural gas prices and chaos in Europe’s energy markets.

In turn, Moscow accused “Anglo-Saxon powers” of masterminding the explosions.

It took German prosecutors almost two years to zero in on the sabotage team and accuse Kyiv of organising the bombing.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly denied Kyiv’s involvement.

Germany “knows very well that Ukraine wasn’t behind the implementation and the very conception to carry out this particular operation”, he recently said at a news conference.

So far, the upcoming trials of Zhuravlev and Kuznetsov are not affecting aid from Berlin.

“Germany still has a huge credit of trust towards Ukraine, which, however, won’t prevent prosecutors from doing their job and finishing the case and courts from convicting average executioners,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera.

But aside from the pipeline blasts, tensions have been seen between the German political establishment and Ukrainian politicians.

In 2022, Andrii Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Berlin at the time, lambasted Germany’s then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz for not providing enough lethal weapons, calling him an “offended liver sausage”.

Also in 2022, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s then-foreign minister, bristled at Berlin’s slow arms deliveries, calling them “disappointing signals”.

“For Ukraine’s future, things are bad because [Ukrainian] elites are confident that that’s the way to get things done and this style, not this individual case [with the sabotage], can cost them membership in the European Union,” Mitrokhin said.

“Germany remembers everything, and after [German Chancellor Friedrich] Merz, who is kind to Ukraine, somebody else who is not that kind could come to power,” he said.