Nordea: Now it's changing – everywhere

Although there are risks linked to a troubled environment, the economic situation for Sweden is judged to be getting better.

Nordea predicts GDP growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 at the same time that households are now starting to open their wallets to an ever greater extent. Consumption is expected to approach levels last seen before the pandemic, as debts have fallen significantly over the past five years.

In all eight regions that Nordea has looked at, the bank sees a positive development.

- The Swedish economy is now leaving the recession and entering a mild boom. If you look at the main barometer indicator for the various regions, they are all above normal, says Anna Westlund, senior economist at Nordea.

The strengthened purchasing power is felt above all in southern Sweden, partly thanks to Danish households spilling over to Malmö, writes Nordea in the report.

Another factor is the defense investments that are made not only in southern Sweden but in several other parts of the country.

- No matter what constellation we will see, investment will be made in defense in both Sweden and the rest of the world, says Anna Westlund about the ongoing government negotiations.

- It is a structural change where you will see strong demand for a long time to come if you talk to the companies.

At the same time, the bank sees an improved situation in several of the country's regions. Småland is described as having headwinds turned into tailwinds, where, among other things, the furniture industry has recovered from previously low levels. A challenge, however, is the supply of skills as the population has decreased in several counties.

In northern Sweden, which in recent years has been characterized by, among other things, Northvolt's bankruptcy, brighter times are also visible. The industry in upper Norrland is expected to benefit from the recent weakening of the krone, writes Nordea.