North Korea is preparing a massive troop surge to help its ally Moscow in its war on Ukraine, with up to 50,000 North Koreans to be deployed in Russia, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In late July, the Ukrainian leader said Russia wanted to bring in another 30,000 North Korean troops, before adding this weekend that Pyongyang decided to have between 30,000 and 50,000 North Koreans deployed on Russian territory. He did not specify if this number included the North Korean troops already taking part in the conflict.
In the comments published this weekend, Zelenskyy also warned North Korea was gaining valuable experience in modern warfare and urged South Korea to boost cooperation with Ukraine on air defense and drones. Two days later, Zelenskyy said Russia had received more North Korean ballistic missiles, which were allegedly used in an attack on Zaporizhzhia.
North Korea has suffered thousands of casualties in the Ukraine war
Russia and North Korea signed a defense pact in the summer of 2024, with North Korea starting to send combat troops to Russia several months later. Analysts believe some 14,000 to 15,000 personnel were deployed, mainly in the Kursk region.
Pyongyang later agreed to send another 6,000 sappers and military construction workers. North Korea has also supplied Russia with millions of artillery rounds and ballistic missiles, according to South Korean and Ukrainian authorities. South Korean intelligence estimates that around 6,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded.
On Thursday, Japan's Kyodo News cited Ukrainian military intelligence as confirming the upcoming North Korean surge. Ukrainian sources say up to 50,000 North Korean troops could be deployed to Russia by the end of November; The troops would reportedly take over duties in Russia's Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod, freeing Russian forces for the Ukrainian front.
Pyongyang's surge 'seems to be becoming a reality'
South Korean lawmaker Yu Yong-weon told DW the military cooperation between Russia and Korea was growing ever closer.
Yu is a former military journalist who visited Ukraine in 2025 and again in February this year. He said he heard claims of the North Korean surge during his most recent visit to the war-torn country.
"I am concerned that this seems to be becoming a reality," he told DW.
Yu noted that 30,000 to 50,000 troops would be significantly more than the roughly 20,000 troops and support forces involved in the initial deployment.
"Whether such a large-scale additional troop deployment will actually take place," Yu said, "the continued expansion of military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow called closer attention from the South Korean government and military."
Will North Koreans watch Russians' back?
Han Ki-bum, a former deputy director of South Korea's National Intelligence Service, also seemed to signal caution.
"Ukraine initially spoke of 30,000 additional personnel before raising the estimate to 50,000 without releasing detailed evidence about the planned deployment," he told DW.
"North Korea has sufficient military manpower to make such a deployment possible without seriously weakening its defenses," according to Han.
"Even though the war is largely deadlocked, a country fighting a prolonged war will always perceive that it lacks manpower," Han said. "North Korean infantry could therefore guard Russian rear areas, allowing more Russian soldiers to be deployed to front-line combat in Ukraine."
Russian officials praise North Koreans
"North Korea also benefits from the arrangement; its troops are gaining experience in 21st-century warfare while testing weapons under actual battlefield conditions; deeper cooperation could increase North Korea's access to Russian expertise in missile, naval and air-defense technology," Han said.
The security expert also estimates that, out of 6,000 North Korean casualties, some 2,000 may have been killed.
"Some 1,000 to 2,000 combat troops and engineers are believed to have returned home, where veterans and families of the dead have reportedly received housing and other preferential treatment," Han said.
"North Korean troops suffered heavy initial losses but became more effective as they adapted to the battlefield," Han said. "Their aggressive fighting style may explain why Putin and other Russian officials have praised their bravery."
North Korean women also moving to Russia
Ahn Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies and a former North Korean soldier, believes that "a deployment of 50,000 is militarily feasible" and that Pyongyang would send "elite special operations troops."
"North Korea's special operations forces are particularly skilled in reconnaissance, surprise attacks and ambushes, and have demonstrated their combat capabilities on the Kursk front, making them attractive to the Russian military," said Ahn, who defected in 1979.
"If 30,000 troops are deployed, however, the contingent would likely include not only special operations forces but also infantry, engineers, construction workers and female medical personnel," he added.
"North Korean women have recently been observed heading to Russia, but it remains unclear whether they are being sent for reconstruction work or as medical personnel."
Ukraine war used as training ground for North Korean military
According to Ahn, "surviving soldiers could bring valuable combat knowledge back to North Korea. Some could become junior officers or instructors, spreading lessons learned from drone warfare, reconnaissance and other aspects of the Ukraine conflict throughout the military."
"However, young soldiers are being exposed to life outside one of the world's most isolated societies. More importantly, a sharp rise in casualties could make the war harder to portray as a success," added Ahn.
"A limited number of fallen soldiers can be celebrated as heroes," Ahn said. "But tens of thousands of dead and wounded could leave behind grieving families and disabled veterans, potentially turning North Korea's battlefield experience into a domestic burden."
