North Korea's Deepening Involvement in Russia's War with Ukraine

North Korea is planning to send an additional 30,000-50,000 troops to Russia to aid in the war against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian and international intelligence. This follows the initial deployment of 14,000-15,000 North Korean troops to the Kursk region in late 2024. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concern that North Korea’s involvement could pose a security threat not only to Ukraine but also to the Asia-Pacific region due to the improved combat and weapons experience North Korea would gain.

Ukrainian officials have also reported that North Korean ballistic missiles, including the KN-23 and KN-24, are being fired from Russia. The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) states that 148 of these missiles have been delivered since 2025, with one striking a home near Kryvyi Rih in July, killing five people. A North Korean missile unit is reportedly deploying to Russia’s Voronezh region, potentially equipped with 120 ballistic missiles.

Experts have mixed views on the impact of North Korea’s troops. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military and political expert, believes the new troops would secure Russia’s border territories, freeing up 15,000 Russian troops for front-line battles. However, Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev doubts North Korean troops would fight on Ukrainian territory, citing the diplomatic distinction between defending Russian territory and engaging in a war of aggression on Ukrainian soil.

Despite estimates suggesting Russia still has sufficient troops, the involvement of North Korean missiles is seen as significant. These missiles, described as “instruments of terror” due to their payload, range, and lower accuracy, can only be countered by US-made Patriot systems, which Ukraine is running low on. Experts warn that as Ukraine’s stockpiles diminish, Russia’s reliance on North Korean missile supplies will grow, potentially leading to increased attacks.

None of the experts interviewed believe North Korea’s involvement will be a turning point in the war. Instead, it signifies a deepening mutual partnership between Russia and North Korea, which is likely to continue throughout the conflict. Concerns are raised about the upcoming winter, with potential further mobilization and missile supplies posing significant challenges for Ukraine.