
AI-generated summary
There is an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which began in February 2022. Russia launches attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, especially before winter, causing power and heating shutdowns. Ukraine repels attacks and conducts a counteroffensive in Donbas, while seeking diplomatic and military support from Western partners.
The Kremlin's new doctrine: Attacks on civilian infrastructure
According to information provided by President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian intelligence has obtained documents confirming that Russia is preparing to expand the scope of attacks on civilian targets before the coming winter. The new strategy, approved by Vladimir Putin, assumes attacks on schools, hospitals, roads and key logistics infrastructure. The aim of these actions is to put pressure on the inhabitants of Kiev and force them to leave the city.
We have seen the documents and we know that they allow attacking infrastructure, logistics, roads, schools, hospitals in order to put pressure on people to leave the capital and other cities, Zelensky stressed.
According to Zelensky, this change in strategy is due to Putin's desire to present himself as a strong leader at a time when his army is losing positions in a key frontline region and suffering increasing human losses.
The Kremlin did not respond to these reports, but issued a statement calling on foreigners to leave Kiev. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Moscow will continue to systematically strike designated targets as part of retaliation for Ukraine's attacks on Russian territory in recent months.
Ukrainian response: Refineries under fire
In response to Russian escalation, Ukraine intends to intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries. We must respond in every way possible. We must respond to their attacks on our energy infrastructure with attacks on their energy infrastructure. First of all, oil refineries - they provide them with funds for this war, Zelensky announced.
At the same time, the President of Ukraine assured that Kiev would not respond in the same way as Russia. We will not - like them - attack any civilian objects, he added.
Reuters recalled that last month, US President Donald Trump appealed to Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries. According to Washington, this has led to an increase in diesel prices worldwide.
Attacks on the Russian fuel sector (refineries, terminals, tankers, etc.) carried out with high intensity since 2025 have caused significant problems in Russia's production capacity (estimated at up to 40%), resulting in, among others, export problems and fuel shortages in many regions of the country. Ukraine declares its readiness to stop attacks on energy facilities if Russia, which rejects these proposals, undertakes to do the same.
"Vivaldi" counteroffensive and diplomatic pressure
The Ukrainian army continues its counteroffensive in Donbas, regaining more areas. According to Zelensky, in recent weeks it has been possible to recapture approximately 140 square kilometers of eastern Donbas - a region that is key to Russia's negotiation plans.
At the same time, diplomatic efforts are underway, such as the US inviting Russia to the G20 summit, which will be held in December in Florida. The administration of US President Donald Trump is trying to resume peace talks, but Zelensky warns against normalizing relations with Russia without a guarantee of peace.
Mere normalization of relations would not be fair. Peace is more important than any economy, he said, emphasizing that any talks must be linked to the end of hostilities.
Antidote to attacks
Zelensky noted that work is underway to find alternative ways to combat the new type of jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicles, e.g. using more powerful tools to disrupt the operation of drones. He announced that in the second half of October, Ukraine will receive a supply of cheap and small anti-aircraft missiles that will allow it to shoot down these drones.
Last Thursday, Zelensky announced the first combat use of the domestically produced FP-7 ballistic missile. In an interview with Reuters, he said that he had talked to the company that produces this type of missiles to speed up work on another model. The president admitted that they are to be ready this fall.
The FP-7 ballistic missile project is being developed by the Ukrainian company Fire Point. The company also produces long-range attack drones and FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles. Its president, Iryna Terech, said at the beginning of September this year: during the arms fair in Kielce that the key project remains Ukraine's own ballistic missile program.
Winter is under threat
Ukrainian officials warn that Russia is stockpiling hundreds of ballistic missiles in preparation for a winter offensive. Last year's attacks left millions of Ukrainians without access to electricity and heating for days. Last week, Russian drones and missiles hit energy and telecommunications infrastructure and bridges on the Dnieper for the first time since the beginning of the war.
Zelensky also said that the recent wave of Russian drone incursions and hybrid attacks in Europe is an attempt to intimidate society. In his opinion, the Kremlin's goal is to create divisions in the societies of countries that support Kyiv.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Ukraine will increase the production and use of FP-7 ballistic missiles in the second half of October 2026.
Likely · Within weeks
Russia may launch increased attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter 2026/2027.
Very likely · Within months
Peace talks could resume at the G20 summit in December 2026 in Florida if the US successfully invites both Russia and Ukraine.
Possible · Within months

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