Nuggets vs. Thunder odds, prediction, time: 2026 NBA picks for Thursday, Oct. 22 by proven model

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets finally make their 2026-207 NBA season debut on Thursday when they take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder. SGA poured in 32 points in the opening game for the Thunder, a 116-104 win over the Spurs on Tuesday. This is the season opener for the Nuggets, who return their Big Three of Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. The Thunder won three of four in last year's season series of contenders. They're the opening week favorites to win the NBA championship at +240. Denver's odds sit at +2500, tied for seventh lowest.

Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. OKC is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds, while the over/under is 235.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Nuggets picks, check out the Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned nearly $19,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks since 2018, including five straight seasons of four-digit profit. The model enters the 2026-27 season off yet another huge season, including going 26-10 (72%) on top-rated spread picks at NBA betting sites.

Now, the model has simulated Nuggets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Thunder vs. Nuggets:

Top Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Thunder vs. Nuggets, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (235.5) on the best betting apps. The Under cruised in OKC's opening win over the Spurs. Just 220 points were scored on a line of 231.5. Last year, however, Denver was the No. 1 team in regards to Overs; 60.2% of its games finished above the total.

OKC finished the 2025-26 season with the NBA's best defensive rating. Against a Nuggets offense that relies heavily on Jokic and half-court creation, the Thunder's length, with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, plus and turnover pressure, should limit easy looks and transition scoring. Each team takes its time setting up offenses, taking time off the clock.

The model is projecting 231 combined points as the Under hits 57% of the time. See the Nuggets vs. Thunder spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Thunder vs. Nuggets picks

After simulating each possession 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NBA picks.