Work proposes to eradicate poverty with the same R$331 billion spent today on social programs

Brazil is experiencing a paradox in the public assistance network. Between 2015 and 2025, spending on programs such as Bolsa Família and BPC (Continuous Payment Benefit) grew 142% in real terms.

Combined, the eight main social programs — Bolsa Família, BPC, Abono Salarial, Paid-de-Meia, Seguro-Defeso, Gás do Povo, Salário-Família and Auxílio-Inclusion — consume R$331 billion per year, an amount equivalent to 2.6% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Even with this massive injection of resources and unemployment at historically low levels, 4.6% of the Brazilian population remained trapped below extreme poverty (international line of US$3 per capita per day, equivalent to around R$276 per month in 2025 prices).

Faced with this structural inefficiency, economists Vinícius Botelho, Fernando Veloso and Marcos Mendes, in a book/study published by the Public Policy Debate Center (CDPP), present Promob (Social Protection and Mobility Program).

The work demonstrates that the major national obstacle is not the lack of funds, but the inadequate design of the assistance system: fragmentation of rules, weak incentive to work and payment formulas that ignore family composition and the family poverty gap.

Furthermore, persistent loopholes in the CadÚnico (Cadastro Único) encourage the artificial fractionation of homes to multiply minimum benefits.

Promob reorganizes the social architecture under the principles of efficiency, innovation and strict fiscal neutrality.

Without spending a cent in addition to the R$331 billion already budgeted, the project unifies the eight current programs into an integrated structure of three main pillars, combined with structuring management measures.

The first is the Minimum Income Benefit (BRM), focused on directly eliminating extreme vulnerability. Instead of generic fixed amounts, the BRM supplements income according to the size and needs of the household, assigning greater weights to the elderly, people with disabilities and children.

In 2025 values, the level is R$1,540 per elderly person or person with a disability, R$420 per child up to six years old and R$280 for other members.

The second pillar is Family Insurance Savings (PSF), created to protect low-income workers against income volatility. The government deposits 30% of the declared work income into a worker's precautionary savings account.

This reserve can be withdrawn in times of a drop in income, closed periods, calamities or emergencies, making the actual declaration to CadÚnico a protective asset, and not a potential loss of aid.

In practice, the BRM and the PSF operate integrated to stimulate work: each real earned reduces the BRM by R$0.80, but the PSF simultaneously deposits 30% of this labor income, resulting in a combined net reduction of just R$0.50 per real earned, ensuring a continuous increase in total income.

For families without children, elderly people or disabled people, the BRM resets to R$350 per capita, and deposits in the PSF continue to decrease up to the ceiling of R$560 per capita, avoiding abrupt cuts.

According to Vinícius Botelho, the current exit door for Bolsa Família is severe due to the drastic cut in the benefit. With Promob's new design, the transition becomes smooth, meaning that entering the job market does not discourage the search for employment or updating registrations.

The third axis is the Mais Educação Program, with deposits of R$65 per month from the beginning of primary school to the end of secondary school. Invested in savings, the resources can only be withdrawn after graduation, until the age of 21. According to the authors, the present value accumulated at the beginning of high school reaches R$13,170, combating school dropout and identifying talents.

For Fernando Veloso, director of Research at the Mobility and Social Development Institute and co-author, the objective is to keep young people in school with long-term incentives, combating socioeconomic rigidity and increasing chances of intergenerational advancement and overcoming poverty.

Sustaining this mechanism depends on reforms in CadÚnico, such as universal registration and cross-referencing of asset and consumption data, such as tax cashback. Microsimulations with Pnad Contínua prove that the reallocation of R$331 billion eradicates 100% of extreme poverty. Reaching 32.5 million families, Promob eliminates flaws and reduces inequality.

According to Marcos Mendes, associate researcher at Insper and columnist at Folha, fiscal neutrality is a great attraction: of the R$331 billion spent in 2025, R$322.3 billion will go to new benefits and transition, and R$8.7 billion to structuring and educational measures.