
A deeply polarized political climate, accusations of corruption and a deadlocked state apparatus characterize the elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
AI-generated summary
The Dayton Agreement was concluded in 1995 and ended the Bosnian war through a complicated division of power between ethnic groups.
Just the number of options is a challenge: 75 parties, close to 30 coalitions and a handful of independent candidates up for grabs when voters have their say.
The political climate in Bosnia-Herzegovina is deeply polarized, and policymaking has been overshadowed by allegations of improper campaigning, corruption and waste of public funds.
- It is in many ways a fateful choice. Either the reform process continues on the way to EU membership, or we move towards further locking where ethno-nationalism is institutionalized, says Johanna Mannergren, who is a professor of political science and international relations at Södertörn University and who has researched peace processes in the Western Balkans, among others.
She refers to the Dayton Agreement, which marked the end of the Bosnian War in 1995. The agreement was the result of a compromise and formed the basis for the entire state formation. The arrangement was intended to reduce friction between the ethnic groups, through a complicated division of power in political bodies and authorities. In addition, a so-called high representative appointed by the UN was established, to, like a watchdog, ensure that the system is complied with.
Over time, wear and tear has increased. The Dayton Agreement was never intended as a permanent solution but as a starting point, but no reform process has ever taken off.
- Sometimes people talk about a "frozen conflict" in the Western Balkans, but I prefer to talk about a "frozen peace". There is no war on the horizon, but it has become difficult to move on. It may sound strange, but exactly what once guaranteed peace, makes deepened peace impossible, says Johanna Mannergren.
The restraints that were created to ensure that politicians and parties with an ethnic agenda do not abuse power now simultaneously lock down the meaning of ethnicity.
How the elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina are conducted on Sunday, and how it goes, is now seen as a test of the country's political maturity, according to analysts at the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.
But voters' trust is low both in politicians and in the fact that the election is fair. Corruption is widespread.
In recent weeks, hundreds of cases of disinformation and undue influence have been reported, as well as violations of the country's election campaign regulations. OSCE election observers have warned that a new digitized voting technology has major flaws.
Many people are politically depressed, says Vladan Lausevic, writer and social entrepreneur. He grew up in Bosnia and is active in the democratically reform-oriented diaspora.
- The country has had a negative development in recent years. People are tired of politicians marketing themselves as "the least corrupt". Voter resignation will, I think, affect turnout.
In recent years, many have also left the country. In 20 years, Bosnia has lost almost a quarter of its population.
Domestic politics is also affected by the tense geopolitical situation. It helps put the Dayton Agreement and the country's future on the line.
At the end of May, the German Christian Schmidt suddenly resigned from the post as UN High Representative. The reason must have been heavy pressure from the White House. That Washington cared at all about Schmidt was rooted in an infrastructure project, with a proposal to build a new pipeline - where gas imported from the United States could replace Russian energy. The gas pipeline would run through several countries in the Western Balkans and benefit several countries in the region.
Several people connected to President Donald Trump had personal interests in the company proposed to be responsible for the entire construction, according to media revelations including by The Guardian - including family members of Trump and a brother of Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn.
Christian Schmidt considered the project unrealistic and frivolous.
Since Schmidt left, the position of High Representative has been vacant. The role cannot be abolished outright, but there is disagreement about its future. The US believes it should be scrapped, others fear ethnic tensions would be given dangerously wide latitude without the UN's overcoat.
That contemporary historical events are charged in the region was evident most recently when the convicted war criminal General Ratko Mladic was recently buried in the neighboring country of Serbia. Mladic has been found guilty of the deaths of thousands of people, but was hailed by many as a hero.
The election and its aftermath are also closely followed by the EU. Bosnia-Herzegovina was granted candidate status in 2022, and the next few weeks are expected to provide a signal as to where the country is headed.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The election result and its aftermath will be followed closely by the EU to evaluate the country's reform process.
Very likely · Within weeks

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