Oil prices fall as renewed U.S.-Iran peace efforts ease supply fears

Oil prices declined Thursday as prospects of renewed peace negotiations eased fears of supply disruptions stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures fell 1.73% to $113.32 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 2.06% to $100.66 per barrel.

The pullback followed reports that U.S. Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei in an attempt to restart peace negotiations, according to the Wall Street Journal, which cited U.S. officials and people familiar with the discussions.

Qatari mediators have also reportedly put forward a fresh proposal aimed at ending the conflict involving Iran, the U.S. and Israel. However, a senior Iranian official rejected the proposals as unacceptable, suggesting significant hurdles remain to securing a diplomatic breakthrough.

Iran's foreign minister said on social media platform X that Tehran remained open to diplomatic efforts, raising the possibility of accelerating a proposed seven-day peace plan if an agreement is reached.

Still, investors are also weighing concerns over the prospect of Houthi attacks and the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran following the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

The persistent threat of supply disruptions has kept crude prices elevated, adding to inflationary pressures and complicating the outlook for global monetary policy.

José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a note late Wednesday that "pricey crude remains the predominant driver of above-target inflation," although broader price pressures have remained relatively contained.

He said inflationary pressures concentrated in energy justified a more patient approach from the Federal Reserve, particularly as underlying inflation remained relatively subdued.

Raising interest rates too aggressively in response to an oil supply shock could also risk weakening employment and exacerbating credit vulnerabilities, Torres suggested.

However, he said "there could be a geopolitical resolution right around the corner," potentially easing inflationary pressures and shifting the Fed's focus away from further rate hikes.

A decline in WTI crude prices toward $70 per barrel could materially strengthen the case for eventual interest-rate cuts, he added.