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BackOne Nation faces Labor in Western Australian by-election as test of growing support
One Nation faces Labor in Western Australian by-election as test of growing support
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ABC Top Stories2 hours agoPolitics2 min readAustralia

One Nation faces Labor in Western Australian by-election as test of growing support

Quick Look

  • One Nation contests a Western Australian by-election in Secret Harbour against Labor, testing whether the party's rising support in eastern states can translate to a seat in WA.
  • Local voters express frustration with major parties, while analysts warn the result could signal shifts in suburban voting patterns ahead of state elections.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The Secret Harbour by-election is triggered by the retirement of long-serving Labor MP Paul Papalia. Labor has held the seat for nearly two decades with an 11.5% margin at the last election. One Nation has seen rising support in eastern states and is attempting to break into Western Australia for the first time.

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One Nation's growing support will be put to the test today, as Pauline Hanson's party goes head to head with Labor in a Western Australian by-election.

The poll in Secret Harbour, a beachside suburb south of Perth, will provide the clearest indication yet of any shift in the political landscape and if One Nation can turn frustration at major parties into seats in Parliament.

Who are the main candidates?

Why is this important?

Analysis by WA state political reporter Keane Bourke

On paper, this by-election shouldn't be very interesting. It's choosing who will replace a retiring Labor veteran in an area the party has held for decades.

The difference this time is One Nation. Support for the party has been surging in the east, at least according to polling, and to a lesser extent here in the west.

If that's going to translate to a win anywhere in WA, Secret Harbour would be close to the top of the list.

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It takes in Perth's outer southern suburbs, with a growing population of young families moving into new housing developments.

Cost of living and housing have been key concerns which many voters would be feeling acutely.

Labor, who won the seat with a margin of 11.5 per cent at the last election, is also putting a strong emphasis on fighting One Nation, who are their real opponents here.

People often vote differently in by-elections which won't change the government, compared to general elections.

But this poll is still being watched nationally as a sign of how much of a threat One Nation can pose to Labor, and how both it, and the Liberals, will need to shape their campaigns to account for it.

What do locals think?

The hairdresser has long been a place to shoot the breeze, so it's no surprise that politics was the main topic of conversation at Emma Pender's salon ahead of the by-election.

When the ABC visited the Golden Bay hairdressers, many clients voiced their frustration with Labor, which held the seat for almost two decades.

"I did vote for Labor in the past, but I feel really let down by them. I hope they change and start to listen to the community a bit more," Fabian Portese said.

Mr Portese has yet to make up his mind about who to vote for today, but for Ms Pender the choice is clear.

"I put Ryan [Liberal candidate] number one. That was purely because he was local," the hairdresser said.

Further along the coast, in Port Kennedy, long-time Labor voter Elaine Soltluisch is heading in a different direction.

"I used to be Labor, but I am just tired of it now. This area, down south, we don't get the attention," she told the ABC while watching her grandkids at the skate park.

"I have been here 30 years and never saw any change … it's too late.

Labor has held the seat for almost 20 years, but the retirement of veteran MP Paul Papalia and growing frustration with the major parties has given One Nation an opening.

It remains to be seen whether Pauline Hanson's party can get enough votes to turn this into its first ever lower house seat in Western Australia.

Where does the protest vote go?

Professor John Phillimore, director of the John Curtin Institute for Public Policy, said this by-election was a critical test for One Nation, leading into the state election in Victoria.

"From a Labor point of view, if the outer suburbs of Perth start falling to One Nation, that might ring some alarm bells in Victoria," he said.

"For the Liberals, it is a big issue for them, these outer suburban areas are traditional swinging seat territory where if a government is going to fall, the opposition picks up those seats."

The Secret Harbour poll is the first time this year Senator Hanson's party has gone up against an incumbent Labor government.

The Australian Labor Party did not run a candidate in the Farrer by-election in New South Wales, which gave One Nation its first lower house seat in federal parliament.

In South Australia, two of the four seats One Nation won in a March election were taken directly from the Liberals, the others from Independents.

"There does seem to be momentum behind One Nation, so this will be a test of that momentum," Dr Phillimore said.

Whether this momentum can propel the so-called 'orange wave' to claim another seat, this time in Labor heartland, remains to be seen.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • One Nation will not win the Secret Harbour by-election but will achieve a significant vote share indicating growing support

    Likely · Within days

  • The by-election result will be analyzed nationally as an indicator of One Nation's potential in future state elections

    Very likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • Will One Nation win the Secret Harbour seat?
  • How will the result affect One Nation's strategy in upcoming state elections?
  • What specific policy concerns are driving voter frustration in outer suburban Perth?
  • Can Labor regain trust in areas where it has traditionally been strong?

Related Topics

This article was originally published by ABC Top Stories.

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