The One Nation hype machine went into overdrive after Saturday’s Secret Harbour byelection but one thing is clear from the thumping victory.
Despite the party’s sustained surge in public support, Labor and the Coalition still don’t have any idea how to calm an angry electorate and dint support for Pauline Hanson and her insurgent movement.
Even before One Nation’s Luke Herdegen was confirmed as having easily defeated Labor’s Georgia Tree in the suburban Western Australia seat previously held by Labor, One Nation’s WA leader, Rod Caddies, declared there were “no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country any more”.
By Sunday morning, Nationals defector Barnaby Joyce said “politics has changed” in favour of One Nation, even claiming the polls were underplaying One Nation’s support nationally.
The party was on track for a swing towards it of more than 20% against Labor in the beachside electorate, a result Hanson said revealed deep-seated and growing anger towards the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and the federal Labor government.
Although it is easy to overstate the significance of single byelection results, when voter behaviour is often quite different from general elections, the win shows under the right conditions, Hanson has the capacity to take seats from Labor, as well as the Liberals and Nationals.
Unless there is a significant shift between now and the next federal election, due in early 2028, incumbent MPs from all sides should fear One Nation and a voting electorate that appears increasingly ready to burn the whole show down.
It has mattered little that Hanson and her motley crew in Canberra had a terrible week, tripping over themselves seemingly every day trying to explain One Nation’s immigration policy, the key issue for the party’s base.
Since the Farrer One Nation MP, David Farley, failed to explain where cuts to lower net overseas migration would come from on TV last Sunday, Hanson and Joyce have both repeatedly flubbed their explanation of what Farley had actually meant to say. One Nation’s strategist James Ashby even appeared on News 24 after dark with a mop, admitting a clean up job was required.
Taking in part of Perth’s southern coastal suburbs, Secret Harbour sits almost entirely within the federal electorate of Canning, held by Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie.
Hanson, her billionaire benefactor, Gina Rinehart, and many One Nation supporters hold a special dislike for Hastie, because he gave evidence against accused war criminal and Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith. But Hastie was right in criticising the Liberal campaign under state leader and former television host Basil Zempilas.
Lackluster opposition to One Nation, in the misguided belief that any loss for Labor was a win for the Liberals, has left Zempilas and his diminished party wanting on Sunday. The best defence he could offer before the loss was to complain that the Liberals would have fared better in a byelection held in a seat closer to the Perth CBD.
Hastie’s message is right. Only a strong, values-led fightback against Hanson, including linking her to the US president, Donald Trump, is the way to fight back. Wishy-washy answers about preference deals and hypothetical minority government arrangements are misguided. The opposition leader, Angus Taylor, should take note.
On Sunday, Albanese told the Labor faithful in Queensland that the party owed it to history to defeat Hanson’s dangerous, divisive, dishonest politics. Fighting back on hip pocket issues still remains Labor’s best chance of stopping Hanson from winning enough seats to really change things in Canberra.
The next federal election is more than a year away, but the Secret Harbour result is the latest evidence of the failure of the major parties to effectively put One Nation back in its box.
