Netanyahu's opponent will try to form a government in Israel without changing the Palestinian impasse

For Palestinians, it is good news that Israeli President Isaac Herzog has chosen Gadi Eisenkot to try to form a new government, possibly replacing Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Over the past two decades, after all, Netanyahu has become one of the main symbols of what the Palestinians face. In particular, it represented the advance of settlements in the West Bank, settler violence and bombings in the Gaza Strip.

It's good news — but it's not excellent. There are no illusions that, once the cards are shuffled, the Palestinians will be dealt a good hand in the near future. They will not have a State.

Eisenkot, in fact, proposes a series of changes in Israeli policy that could benefit the Palestinians or, at least, reduce the losses.

During his terms, Netanyahu adopted a policy of accelerated expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, considered illegal by most of the international community.

This means that, in practice, there is no longer a contiguous Palestinian territory. Experts describe the region as an "archipelago" of small, disconnected patches, some under the Palestinian Authority.

Eisenkot proposes to contain this expansion and combat settler violence against the Palestinian population. Still, it does not advocate the total withdrawal of these territories.

Eisenkot and Netanyahu coincide on several points. Both defend, for example, that Israel maintain military and security control over the West Bank. They also assert that Israel should not withdraw from the Gaza Strip until Hamas is disarmed.

The most important thing is that neither is willing to seriously discuss the historic demands of the Palestinians, which include the creation of an independent state and the right of return for millions of refugees.

Eisenkot has publicly rejected, on several occasions, the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. Referring to the so-called two-state solution — one for Israelis and one for Palestinians —, he classified it as a serious error. After the terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, he said that defending this possibility was delusional.

It's not even clear, by the way, whether Eisenkot and his allies will be able to form a government.

Netanyahu's bloc has 53 seats out of a total of 120 in Parliament. Eisenkot's, 48. To govern, it is necessary to have at least 61.

One way to resolve this would be to form a coalition with the Arab-Israeli parties Ra’am and Joint List, which had a historic performance in the elections, winning 19 seats.

But Eisenkot already appears to have ruled out forming a government with Arab parties, which in itself indicates that he is not willing to make major breaks with Israeli political tradition.

The solution would be an alliance in which these parties would support him without, however, joining his cabinet. Even this possibility faces resistance from some of his allies.

Another alternative would be to attract ultra-Orthodox parties, traditionally Netanyahu's allies. Together, they add up to the 13 seats needed for Eisenkot's bloc to reach a majority. The price of this support, however, is high and unpopular: the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from military service.

Eisenkot now has 28 days to close the account, with the possibility of extending the deadline for another two weeks. If he fails to form a government, President Isaac Herzog could entrust Netanyahu with the task of trying to do so.

Netanyahu, therefore, is not out of the game yet. And even if it leaves the table, it will not have resolved the structural issues that prolong the Palestinian crisis.