Pakistan's Economy Faces Sustained Pressure as Double-Digit Inflation Persists

Pakistan's struggling economy is likely to remain under sustained pressure, with double-digit inflation expected to persist if global oil prices continue to surge amid the ongoing Middle East crisis, according to a report by Dawn. Topline Securities Ltd, in its latest "Pakistan Strategy" report released Saturday, provided a grim assessment of the impact of rising energy costs and regional instability on the country's economy and stock market. The brokerage described the situation as "prolonged and evolving," warning that any improvement depends on an immediate and peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The report said that under current conditions, inflation could average between 9 and 10 per cent over the next year, with fourth-quarter FY26 figures expected to exceed 11 per cent. These projections are based on oil prices at $100 per barrel, with every $10 increase adding around 50 basis points to inflation. If oil rises to $120 per barrel, annual inflation could reach 11 per cent, potentially forcing the State Bank of Pakistan into further aggressive interest rate hikes.

The rising inflationary pressure is expected to slow economic growth. Topline Securities has cut its GDP forecast for FY27 to between 2.5 and 3.0 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4.0 per cent. Growth for FY26 is projected at 3.5 to 4.0 per cent, but the industrial sector remains vulnerable, with growth possibly dropping to just 1 per cent from nearly 4 per cent.

The current account deficit for FY27 could exceed $8 billion if the government fails to maintain strict import controls, worsening pressure on foreign exchange reserves. The fiscal deficit for FY26 is expected to range between 4.0 and 4.5 per cent of GDP, exceeding targets set by the International Monetary Fund.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange has been among the worst-performing markets globally, reflecting the country's heavy reliance on imported energy. Petroleum imports are projected to reach $15 billion in FY26, while Pakistan imports around 85 per cent of its energy needs. This dependence contributed to a 15 per cent decline in the market during the first quarter of the year.

The economic outlook is further affected by a projected 3.5 per cent decline in remittances, with inflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council region expected to fall by 10 per cent. Exports are also forecast to decline by 4 per cent.

On the currency front, the Pakistani rupee is expected to weaken to 298 against the US dollar by FY27. Persistent conflict could push depreciation beyond historical averages, increasing pressure on supply and demand.

Dawn noted that while domestic exploration firms may eventually increase production to reduce reliance on liquefied natural gas imports, the near-term outlook remains marked by high interest rates, rising urea prices, and a growing dependence on emergency administrative measures to prevent a deeper economic crisis.