Thailand Cuts Growth Forecast to 1.6% as Middle East War Dampens Tourist Arrivals
Finance ministry projects 33.5 million foreign tourists this year, down 2 million from prior estimate, with Middle East visitors falling by a third in March
Quick Look
- Thailand's finance ministry has cut the country's GDP growth forecast to 1.6% for 2026, down from 2.4% in 2025, citing the Middle East war's impact on global energy prices.
- Tourist arrivals are expected to reach 33.5 million this year, about 2 million fewer than previously estimated, with Middle East visitors falling by a third in March and European arrivals dropping 4%.
- Core inflation is forecast to hit 3%, up from an earlier estimate of 0.3%.
AI-generated summary
Thailand's economic growth and tourist arrivals are forecast to drop this year as the Middle East war roils global energy prices, the finance ministry said Tuesday. The country's GDP growth is projected to dip to 1.6 percent, the ministry said in a statement, down from 2.4 percent in 2025. Growth in the Southeast Asian nation is anaemic, with the tourism sector vital but arrivals yet to return to their pre-Covid highs. The government said in February that this year's growth forecast was between 1.5 to 2.5 percent. Thailand expects about 33.5 million foreign tourists this year, about two million fewer than previously estimated, the ministry said on Tuesday. Tourists from Europe and the Middle East have declined as a result of the US-Israeli war against Iran, which began two months ago and has driven up fuel prices, the ministry added. Visitors from the Middle East fell by a third in March compared to the same month last year, and European arrivals dropped around four percent, while tourists from other Asian nations rose six percent, according to Thai tourism ministry figures. Thailand received nearly 33 million foreign visitors in total last year. The country's core inflation was forecast to hit three percent this year, up from an earlier estimate of 0.3 percent.
