Patrick Mahomes Returns as Chiefs Face Broncos in Monday Night Football with DraftKings Promo
Quick Look
Patrick Mahomes returns from injury as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Denver Broncos in Monday Night Football, with SportsLine experts and projection model recommending Chiefs -2.5, Under 42.5 total points, and Mahomes Under 14.5 rushing yards as top bets, all tied to a DraftKings promo offering $200 in bonus bets for new users after a $5+ wager.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Patrick Mahomes is returning from a multi-ligament knee injury (ACL and LCL tear) sustained in December, marking his first competitive game back. The Chiefs have lost their last three meetings to the Broncos, adding motivational context.
Patrick Mahomes is back, making Chiefs vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football a prime opportunity to claim the latest DraftKings promo code, which gives new users $200 in bonus bets after making a $5+ bet, paid within 21 days, one of our top sportsbook promos. The SportsLine Projection Model and SportsLine team of experts have locked in top picks for Broncos vs. Chiefs, including expert Brady Kannon backing Mahomes and the Chiefs to cover as 2.5-point favorites as part of Monday NFL best bets with the latest DraftKings promo code. The model sees value in Under 42.5 total points scored, while expert Megan Shoup has locked in a player prop betting pick involving Mahomes for Chiefs vs. Broncos best bets at DraftKings. Mahomes' over/under for total passing yards is 223.5. Claim the latest DraftKings promo code, where new users get $200 in bonus bets after making a $5 wager:
Check out our DraftKings promo code review for full details about one of our best sports betting apps.
SportsLine's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Chiefs vs. Broncos best bets at DraftKings
Chiefs (-2.5) (-104)
Under 42.5 total points (-112)
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, Under 14.5 rushing yards (-108)
Combining the three picks into a Monday same-game parlay betting pick at DraftKings would result in a payout of +480 (risk $100 to profit $480, odds subject to change). Claim $200 in bonus bets after your first $5 wager at DraftKings here:
Chiefs (-2.5) (-104)
"KC is favored in this game and it's already up to 3 in many spots, yet the masses are playing the dog," SportsLine expert Brady Kannon said. "Everything is telling me Chiefs at home, laying less than a field goal, is still nearly an auto play. This is triple revenge for the Chiefs, who have now fallen to Denver in each of their last three meetings. Give me Kansas City to win by three or more." Bet on the Chiefs at DraftKings here and claim $200 in bonus bets after making a $5+ wager as a new user:
Under 43.5 total points (-112)
The last six Chiefs vs. Broncos games have an average over/under of 33.7 points, and none of those six went Over 43.5 points. Denver had the No. 4 scoring defense at 18.5 points per game allowed and Kansas City had the No. 5 scoring defense (19.3 ppg allowed). Patrick Mahomes hasn't played in a competitive game since tearing his ACL and LCL in December, so rust is possible, and although Denver had the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, the Broncos ranked 14th at 23.6 ppg offensively. The model projects the Under to hit in 63% of simulations. Bet on the Under at DraftKings here and claim $200 in bonus bets after making a $5+ wager as a new user:
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, Under 14.5 rushing yards (-108)
"Coming off a multi-ligament tear in his left knee, will Patrick Mahomes run less in 2026? Mahomes himself noted in training camp that he needs to 'stop running a little bit too much' and noted that he can lean on his new addition, RB Kenneth Walker," SportsLine expert Megan Shoup said. "Even when he was completely healthy, he only rushed for three yards in his one appearance against the Broncos last season. I'm going to listen to the man himself and consider logic. I don't see Mahomes scrambling much in his very first game back from injury, especially against this defense." Bet this player prop at DraftKings here and claim $200 in bonus bets after making a $5+ wager as a new user:
Want more Chiefs vs. Broncos picks for Monday?
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What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Chiefs will cover the -2.5 point spread against the Broncos.
Likely · Within hours
Total points in the Chiefs-Broncos game will stay under 42.5.
Likely · Within hours
Patrick Mahomes will rush for under 14.5 yards in his return game.
Possible · Within hours
Open Questions
- How will Mahomes' knee injury affect his performance in his first game back?
- Can the Chiefs overcome their three-game losing streak to the Broncos?
- What is the exact payout structure for the DraftKings promotion beyond the initial $200 bonus?
