Quaest for the Senate in MS, valid votes: Azambuja, 35%; Count, 32%; Soraya, 16%; Vander, 10% — Photo: Reproduction
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the day before the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Mato Grosso do Sul. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. Reinaldo Azambuja and Capitão Contar lead in the first positions.
Spontaneous search
First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 59% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search - valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 35%
Captain Contar (PL): 32%
Soraya (PSB): 16%
Vander Loubet (PT): 10%
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 3%
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 3%
Daniel Junior (ACT): 1%
Luiz Lemes (DC): 0%
Valderi Garcia (PCO): 0%
Valter from Comagran (PRD): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
Stimulated Search - Total Votes
See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 26% (it was 22% in the previous survey)
Captain Contar (PL): 25% (was 23%)
Soraya (PSB): 14% (was 10%)
Vander Loubet (PT): 8% (was 8%)
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 2% (was 2%)
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 2% (was 2%)
Daniel Junior (ACT): 1% (was 1%)
Luiz Lemes (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Valderi Garcia (PCO): 0% (was 1%)
Valter from Comagran (PRD): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 13% (was 18%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 9% (was 12%)
Vote for 1st place
Captain Contar (PL): 31% (was 31%)
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 26% (was 25%)
Soraya (PSB): 13% (was 9%)
Vander Loubet (PT): 9% (was 9%)
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 2% (was 1%)
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 1% (was 2%)
Daniel Junior (ACT): 1% (was 1%)
Luiz Lemes (DC): 0% (was 0%)
Valderi Garcia (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Valter from Comagran (PRD): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 9% (was 13%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 8% (was 9%)
Vote for 2nd place
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 26% (was 19%)
Captain Contar (PL): 19% (was 15%)
Soraya (PSB): 15% (was 11%)
Vander Loubet (PT): 7% (was 6%)
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 2% (was 3%)
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 3% (was 3%)
Daniel Junior (ACT): 1% (was 1%)
Valderi Garcia (PCO): 0% (was 1%)
Valter from Comagran (PRD): 0% (was 1%)
Luiz Lemes (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Undecided: 16% (was 23%)
White/null/will not vote: 11% (was 16%)
Vote decision
For 20%, the vote choice for the Senate could still change. Another 79% say the decision is final.
Choice is final: 79% (was 68%)
May change: 20% (was 32%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)
Spontaneous search
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL): 13% (it was 10% in the previous survey)
Captain Contar (PL): 13% (was 11%)
Soraya (PSB): 6% (was 4%)
Vander Loubet (PT): 4% (was 3%)
Roberto Oshiro (NEW): 1% (was 1%)
Beto do Movimento (PSOL): 0% (was 0%)
Daniel Junior (ACT): 0% (was 0%)
Valderi Garcia (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Valter from Comagran (PRD): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 59% (was 67%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 4% (was 4%)
The survey was commissioned by TV Morena and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number MS-04157/2026.
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