
The Quaest survey, commissioned by Globo and registered with the TSE, explains that to win in the 1st round a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote, excluding blanks and null votes, and uses the likely voter model with voting intentions and turnout profile of 2,652 voters interviewed between October 2nd and 3rd, with a margin of error of two percentage points and 95% confidence.
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The research explains the calculation of valid votes used in Brazilian elections, excluding blank and invalid votes, and the likely voter model that considers the real propensity of voters to turn out.
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
The survey was commissioned by Globo and interviewed 2,652 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number PE-09665/2026.

On Sunday (4), the first round of the 2026 Elections, Juiz de Fora changes municipal service schedules: public transport operates on a weekday basis, UPAs and emergency services operate 24 hours a day, while cultural facilities such as the Mariano Procópio Museum remain closed.

g1 follows in real time the voting day in the 1st round of elections in the South of Minas from 7am this Sunday. Of the 2.29 million voters in the region, 1.92 million have mandatory voting and 369 thousand have optional voting. Poços de Caldas leads the electoral college with 122,471 voters, followed by Pouso Alegre and Varginha. The group aged 40 to 44 is the most representative, with 215,927 voters, while there are more than 316 thousand elderly people aged 70 or over, including 8,323 centenarians. Voting takes place from 8 am to 5 pm Brasília time for president, governors, senators and deputies. The second round, if necessary, will be on October 25th.

The Regional Electoral Court of Minas Gerais reported that around 14,000 voters in Montes Claros will have changes to their voting locations this Sunday (4), with transfers of sections of the City Hall and the old Education Police Station to new addresses, in addition to changes at the Escola Estadual Secundino Tavares due to damage caused by the storm. TRE-MG is sending messages via WhatsApp to guide voters.

Trump announced he will send $90 checks to help pay for health insurance costs, to be distributed in October, just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The payment will be financed by the Medicare Improvement Fund, although previous administrations have not used the fund for that purpose. The move comes amid low approval for his fight against inflation and includes previous promises of $500 for 1 million people and $5,000 per adult if Republicans hold on to Congress.

Federal deputy Benedita da Silva (PT) leads with 26% of valid voting intentions for the Senate in Rio de Janeiro, according to a Datafolha survey released this Saturday (3). Carlos Jordy (PL) and Carlos Portinho (PL) are in a technical tie with 19% and 18%, respectively. The survey interviewed 2,010 voters between Friday (2) and Saturday (3), with a margin of error of two percentage points.

A Datafolha survey released this Saturday points to a technical tie between Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Marina Silva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (PSB) for the Senate in São Paulo, with 22%, 22%, 21% and 20% of valid votes respectively. The margin of error is two percentage points. The percentage of undecided voters fell from 53% to 47% in the spontaneous poll.