Quaest research released this Saturday (3) shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Santa Catarina. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. Considering the valid votes, Carol De Toni (PL) is ahead with 30%, followed by Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) with 24% and Esperidião Amin (PP), with 20%. Carlos and Amin are technically tied at the limit of the margin of error.
This year, state voters elect two senators. The two with the most votes, regardless of percentage, win. There is no 2nd round contest for the Senate.
Spontaneous search
First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 63% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search - valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Carol De Toni (PL): 30%
Carlos Bolsonaro (PL): 24%
Amin Esperidião (PP): 20%
Décio Lima (PT): 12%
Afrânio Boppré (PSOL): 5%
Lunelli (MDB): 4%
Carol (PCO): 2%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter (Mission): 2%
Jeferson Rocha (PRD): 1%
Ana Lúcia da Silveira Machado (UP): 0%
Joaninha de Oliveira (PSTU): 0%
Marcos Dorval (PSTU): 0%
Marlene Soccas (UP): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
Carol de Toni, Carlos Bolsonaro, Esperidião Amin and Décio Lima, candidates for the Senate for Santa Catarina — Photo: Reproduction/Social networks
Stimulated Search - Total Votes
See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Carol De Toni (PL): 20% (it was 17% on September 24)
Carlos Bolsonaro (PL): 15% (was 16%)
Amin Esperidião (PP): 13% (was 15%)
Décio Lima (PT): 8% (was 10%)
Afrânio Boppré (PSOL): 4% (was 4%)
Lunelli (MDB): 4% (was 3%)
Carol (PCO): 1% (was 1%)
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter (Mission): 1% (was 1%)
Ana Lúcia da Silveira Machado (UP): 1% (was 1%)
Jeferson Rocha (PRD): 1% (was 0%)
Marcos Dorval (PSTU): 0% (was 1%)
Marlene Soccas (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Joaninha de Oliveira (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 24% (was 22%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 8% (was 9%)
Vote for 1st place
Carol De Toni (PL): 24% (it was 19% on September 24)
Amin Esperidião (PP): 16% (was 18%)
Carlos Bolsonaro (PL): 14% (was 17%)
Décio Lima (PT): 12% (was 14%)
Lunelli (MDB): 3% (was 3%)
Afrânio Boppré (PSOL): 2% (was 2%)
Ana Lúcia da Silveira Machado (UP): 1% (was 1%)
Carol (PCO): 1% (was 1%)
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter (Mission): 1% (was 1%)
Jeferson Rocha (PRD): 0% (was 0%)
Marlene Soccas (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Joaninha de Oliveira (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Marcos Dorval (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 19% (was 22%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 7% (was 9%)
Vote for 2nd place
Carlos Bolsonaro (PL): 16% (it was 14% on September 24)
Carol De Toni (PL): 15% (was 15%)
Amin Esperidião (PP): 10% (was 12%)
Décio Lima (PT): 5% (was 6%)
Afrânio Boppré (PSOL): 5% (was 5%)
Lunelli (MDB): 4% (was 3%)
Carol (PCO): 1% (was 2%)
Ana Lúcia da Silveira Machado (UP): 1% (was 1%)
Marcos Dorval (PSTU): 1% (was 1%)
Joaninha de Oliveira (PSTU): 1% (was 0%)
Jeferson Rocha (PRD): 1% (was 1%)
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter (Mission): 0% (was 1%)
Marlene Soccas (UP): 0% (was 1%)
Undecided/don’t know/didn’t answer: 30% (was 27%)
Blank/null: 10% (was 11%)
Vote decision
For 76%, the vote choice for the Senate could still change. Another 24% say the decision is final.
Choice is final: 76% (was 62% on September 24)
Could change: 24% (was 38%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 0% (they were 0%)
Spontaneous search
Carol De Toni (PL): 12% (was 9% on September 24)
Carlos Bolsonaro (PL): 7% (was 5%)
Amin Esperidião (PP): 7% (was 7%)
Décio Lima (PT): 4% (was 3%)
Afrânio Boppré (PSOL): 2% (was 2%)
Lunelli (MDB): 2% (was 1%)
Ana Lúcia da Silveira Machado (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Carol (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter (Mission): 1% (was 0%)
Jeferson Rocha (PRD): 0% (was 0%)
Joaninha de Oliveira (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Marlene Soccas (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Marcos Dorval (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Others: 1% (was 0%)
Undecided: 63% (was 71%)
White/null/will not vote: 2% (was 2%)
The survey was commissioned by the NSC and interviewed 1800 voters aged 16 and over on October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number SC-07346/2026.
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