
AI-generated summary
The Quaest survey was commissioned by Globo and carried out between October 2nd and 3rd with 3,204 voters aged 16 or over in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The survey was registered with the TSE under protocol RJ-03032/2026.
Quaest survey released this Saturday (3) shows Eduardo Paes (PSD) with 49% of the valid votes for the government of Rio de Janeiro. Douglas Ruas (PL) appears with 40%. The difference between the two is 9 percentage points. Garotinho (Republicans) has 6%. The calculation of valid votes considers voting intentions from the survey and the pattern and profile of electoral turnout in the state.
Valid votes with Garotinho
Eduardo Paes (PSD): 49%
Douglas Ruas (PL): 40%
Anthony Garotinho (Republicans): 6%
William Siri (PSOL): 3%
André Marinho (New): 1%
Colonel Busnello (Mission): 1%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0%
Juliet (UP): 0%
Luan Monteiro (PCO): 0%
The research was contracted by Globo. Quaest interviewed 3204 voters aged 16 or over between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol RJ-03032/2026.
Governor — scenario without Garotinho
Stimulated research
Eduardo Paes (PSD): 36% (was 35%)
Douglas Ruas (PL): 29% (was 26%)
William Siri (PSOL): 2% (was 2%)
André Marinho (New): 1% (was 1%)
Colonel Busnello (Mission): 1% (was 1%)
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0% (was 2%)
Juliete (UP): 0% (was 1%)
Luan Monteiro (PCO): 0% (was 1%)
Undecided: 16% (was 16%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 15% (was 15%)
Valid votes
Eduardo Paes (PSD): 51%
Douglas Ruas (PL): 43%
William Siri (PSOL): 3%
André Marinho (New): 1%
Colonel Busnello (Mission): 1%
Juliet (UP): 1%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0%
Luan Monteiro (PCO): 0%
2nd round — Paes x Ruas
Eduardo Paes (PSD): 45% (was 43%)
Douglas Ruas (PL): 33% (was 33%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 11% (was 15%)
Undecided: 11% (was 9%)
2nd round — Paes x Garotinho
Eduardo Paes (PSD): 49% (was 48%)
Anthony Garotinho (Republicans): 16% (was 20%)
White/null/will not vote: 24% (was 21%)
Undecided: 11% (was 11%)
Senate — stimulated, total votes combined
Carlos Jordy (PL): 17%
Carlos Portinho (PL): 16%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 16%
Pedro Paulo (PSD): 10%
Marcelo Crivella (Republicans): 9%
Monica Benicio (PSOL): 6%
Michelly Xavier (UP): 1%
Waguinho (Republicans): 1%
Other candidates: 0%
Undecided: 6%
Blank/null/will not vote: 18%
Senate — valid votes
Carlos Portinho (PL): 23%
Carlos Jordy (PL): 22%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 21%
Pedro Paulo (PSD): 13%
Marcelo Crivella (Republicans): 12%
Monica Benicio (PSOL): 7%
Waguinho (Republicans): 2%
Other candidates: 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Eduardo Paes will win the elections for the Rio de Janeiro government in 2026 if current trends continue.
Likely · Within months

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