Quaest survey shows technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro with useful vote movement to the right

The Quaest survey released this Saturday (3), the day before the first round, captured a useful vote movement of voters from other candidacies towards Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), according to Felipe Nunes, director of the consultancy and professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV).

“It’s true that Lula even fluctuates a point, but the movement we capture is a useful right-wing voting movement,” Nunes told GloboNews’ Central das Eleições.

In the survey, Lula (PT) has 46% of the valid votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 45%, in a technical tie. In total votes, Lula went from 39% to 40% in relation to the round released on Monday (28), while Flávio went from 34% to 38%.

According to Nunes, the candidacies competing for votes on the right worked, throughout the first round, as a reservoir of voters who could migrate to Flávio Bolsonaro if he established himself as a competitive name.

“It is as if they had functioned during this first round as a water tank of votes, a reservoir of votes waiting for these movements,” he stated.

When questioned by polls, 60% of voters in Renan Santos (Missão) said they would vote for Flávio Bolsonaro in a second round between Lula and him, the same was repeated among 43% of voters in Caiado and 34% of those in Cury (read more).

🔎 The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo and interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-02197/2026.

Migration may continue on voting day

In the assessment of the director of Quaest, the movement could still change the order of candidates at the polls. He stated that a new migration of voters from the other candidacies could lead Flávio Bolsonaro to finish the first round numerically ahead of Lula.

"So the voter is making up his mind and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw this movement intensifying tomorrow, because the movement of useful votes on the right is now, I would say, very decisive. It is very strong, right? I think there are elements to say, even, that tomorrow at the polls we could see a movement for Flávio, even ahead of Lula, if this contingent of alternative voters decides in this way", said Nunes.

The director of Quaest considered, however, that the volume of voters from the other candidates who claim to have already decided their vote supports the expectation that the dispute will be resolved in two rounds.

“The volume of voters of these alternatives who at this moment say they have already decided their vote is large enough, I would say, for us to still work with the two-round scenario,” stated Nunes.

In the survey, 75% of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) voters, 68% of Augusto Cury (Avante) and 66% of Renan Santos (Missão) say that the choice for the first round is definitive. Among Lula voters, there are 92%; among Flávio’s, 89%.

See voting intentions in the first round, considering the total votes:

Lula (PT): 40% (was 39%);

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 38% (was 34%);

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 3% (was 4%);

Augusto Cury (Avante): 3% (was 4%);

Renan Santos (Mission): 3% (was 3%);

Undecided: 3% (was 5%);

Blank/null/will not vote: 10% (it was 10%).