Quaest and Datafolha surveys show a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for President
Quick Look
- The Quaest and Datafolha polls indicate a technical tie between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in voting intentions for president, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
- Quaest points to 46% for Lula and 45% for Bolsonaro, while Datafolha shows 45% for Lula and 42% for Bolsonaro, both within the margin of error, suggesting a likely second round.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Electoral surveys are carried out to measure the population's voting intentions. The likely voter model considers voters with a greater propensity to vote. To win in the first round, a candidate needs more than 50% of the valid votes.
See the numbers in valid votes, with a margin of error of 2 points plus or minus:
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote. Click here to find out more.
The Quaest survey shows Lula (PT) with 46% of valid votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro with 45%. According to the survey, the numbers indicate a technical tie, considering the margin of error, and point to a likely dispute in the 2nd round.
The Quaest survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo and interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-02197/2026.
A survey by the institute shows Lula has 45% of the valid votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 42%, which constitutes a technical tie within the survey's margin of error, plus or minus two percentage points.
The Datafolha survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo and interviewed 4,006 voters aged 16 or over, this Saturday (3). The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-01708-2026.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The 2026 presidential election will have a second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What will be the behavior of undecided voters until the election?
- How will each candidate's campaign evolve in the coming weeks?
- Will there be significant changes in voting intentions after the television debate?
