
Sweden is affected by increasingly heavy downpours and floods at the same time as the risks of drought increase. Society is unprepared.
AI-generated summary
In recent years, Sweden has been hit by several heavy downpours and floods in Gävle, Åre and Västernorrland, among others.
They appear almost as an annual tradition: the images of flooded roads, villas with water-filled basements, waterways filled to the brim, road and train embankments collapsing.
Five years ago, large parts of Gävle were under water after one of the worst downpours recorded in Sweden - so far.
Three years ago, it was storm Hans that moved in over Sweden. The rainfall led to collapsed roads in large parts of the country. An SJ train derailed on the section between Iggesund and Hudiksvall. In Åre, a mudflow was triggered which gushed down into the village.
Last year it was Västernorrland's turn, with a torrential downpour that destroyed roads and railways and exposed how ill-equipped Sweden is for the rapid change in the rain's behavior.
The floods that hit Sotenäs this week are not of the same dignity, but they raise the same question:
What the hell has happened to our rains?
Sweden has always been affected by torrential rains and floods, but what has happened in recent decades is something new. The change is clearly visible in SMHI's statistics - in just 50 years we have gone from getting around 600 millimeters of precipitation a year to around 700 millimeters.
Paradoxically enough, this is happening at the same time as we run an increased risk of water shortages and drought, something that became clear in southern Sweden this summer. The two trends may appear to be opposites, but are in fact two sides of the same coin: climate change.
When Sweden warms up, more water evaporates from lakes, streams and the ground. The warmer air becomes like a sponge that absorbs water all over the country - and this means that Sweden can periodically become drier.
But it also means that more water can be in the air, about 7 percent more per degree. When the water comes down again, it happens in more and worse rain.
However, what we see now is only the beginning. SMHI's climate scenarios show that the trend is expected to continue for many decades to come. But the increase is not evenly distributed across the country or the year.
Here we come to the most important change: it is the rainfall that increases the most. SMHI expects the worst downpours to be around 20-40 percent worse in the second half of the century. It looks worst in the areas that already have the rainiest today, above all the west coast but also the Norrland coast and the mountains.
The climate we live in now is simply different from the one our parents grew up in. And the climate our children will live in is different from today's.
The big challenge is that society in general looks the same as when our parents were young. In many places, we have also built ourselves into greater risks by removing green areas, damming waterways, creating hard surfaces, furnishing basements and building residential areas on old lakebeds or right by the water.
Our society is simply not adapted for today's climate, let alone for what lies ahead.
Work is underway to fix it, by creating surfaces where the water can flow, creating more green areas or updating VA systems. But as DN's reviews have shown, it is work that is greatly neglected.
Until it is fixed, we can count on more scenes like those in Sotenäs, and worse.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The worst downpours will be 20-40 percent worse during the second half of the century.
Likely · Within months

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