SVT's "Aktuellt" began its 21 broadcast on Wednesday with two questions, which nowadays mostly have a rhetorical character. The host Nike Nylander put them this way: "Is the United States on the side of Ukraine or Russia, and is it that Trump simply likes Putin more than Zelensky?"
Realism is a better guide than hope, so it's as good to say as it is.
Trump thinks of his own interests first, of his family second and of the United States third. If the list is longer than that, we can be absolutely sure that Ukraine is not on it.
Correspondingly, Trump likes himself above all, then people whom he considers equal. President Zelenskyy is definitely not in the latter category. He is far below what Trump sees as the right status. And worst of all: he continues to stand in the way of the "deal" on Ukraine that the US is trying to achieve with Russia.
This does not mean that Putin and Trump have the same motivations, just because both despise democracy and see a weak and divided Europe as an end in itself.
Both despise democracy and see a weak and divided Europe as an end in itself
Russia expert Fiona Hill, who for many years advised the US government, is probably right when she points out that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is rooted in a notion of Russian greatness and historical claims. Putin sees himself as an heir to rulers like Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. He is fixated on history and reinterprets the past to justify abuses today. He is very locked in his positions and afraid of losing face.
Trump, for his part, cares most about status and power relations. It is the present that counts. He chases quick deals, personal glory and private wealth.
Words are tools to achieve Trump's goals. They don't have to have any connection to reality. And flattery is what the president appreciates. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that his so-called peace broker, real estate magnate Steve Witkoff, calls Putin a "humanitarian leader".
When various EU and NATO representatives do violence to their dignity to thank Trump and express respect during meetings, it is rooted in this realization: a full-blooded narcissist rules the world's most powerful nation. One should show "gratitude," as Vice President JD Vance instructed Zelensky last year during the infamous confrontation at the White House.
But what Europe still underestimates is that it's not just about managing the temper of a megalomaniac.
The truth is that central parts of the Trump sphere, like Russia, desire a permanent weakening of European cooperation. This is most clearly seen in the US administration's national security strategy, where the EU is openly criticized.
Russia itself is greatly weakened and effectively functions as a giant raw material base for China. The war is extremely costly for the country, but the transition to a normal economy risks inducing a collapse.
The US sees this and seems to be trying to use Russia as a useful pawn to keep the Europeans in check. Europe should not have any capabilities of its own, but be heavily dependent on the United States - both for help with security and to secure its energy supply. Even after a so-called peace agreement. The height of geopolitical cynicism would be if the US managed to import cheap Russian energy and then sell it on to a desperate Europe - at a good profit.
China is already doing this in the world market, which reminds us that the great rivalry in the world is between the US and China.
China has a grip on Russia and could pressure Putin into concessions. But so far the war has benefited China's interests: the US and Europe have split, Moscow has become even more dependent on Beijing and the war has diluted the conflicts in the Middle East, where the US is now stuck and drained of resources.
For Ukraine, however, the war is not a cynical geopolitical calculation. It is a matter of survival. The alternative is horrific.
For Europe, the outcome of the conflict is also existential, since Ukraine has in practice become our most important defense. If Ukraine falls, a crucial protective wall for the entire EU also falls.
If Ukraine falls, a crucial protective wall for the entire EU also falls
The most important thing Europe can do is therefore to help Ukraine with the resources necessary to keep Russia at bay.
Many fear what will happen to the financial aid to Ukraine if Le Pen wins the presidential election in France next spring. There are reasons for concern, but France's problem is that it itself has great financial difficulties. Given the country's size, Ukraine is given less support than many others.
All EU countries need to give significantly more, including Sweden, which already gives more than most. And it is about support on all fronts: economic, military, civil.
As usual, our neighboring country Norway holds nice peace conferences and gives out prizes, but allows rampant oil and gas prices to fill the already gigantic oil fund.
It is tragic. What will the country with its enormous wealth do if the war moves westward? If peace in the Nordics is seriously threatened? The whole thinking is based on the fact that in our part of the world we live in a time of eternal peace, where the only thing we need to plan for in the long term is a comfortable existence as pensioners.
But we know that the US prefers Russia to Ukraine. We know that Trump prefers Putin to Zelensky.
We are no longer spectators to crises and wars somewhere else far away, but to the highest degree affected ourselves.
It is time to start acting accordingly.
