Oil: for the first time since the start of the war in Iran, global supply will exceed demand

Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in the last quarter of 2026 for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran at the end of February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated this Friday, November 13. “Our supply and demand balance sheets for the month of November indicate that the global oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger increase in 2027,” writes the IEA in its monthly report.

Global oil supply increased by a further 2.3 million barrels per day to reach 105.4 mb/d in October, “driven by the high level of exports from the Gulf despite continuing attacks on energy infrastructure and oil tankers,” explains the agency. Exports from Gulf countries, excluding Oman, are now 26% below their pre-war level.

As a result of this improvement in Gulf exports, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply for the rest of the year by 3.3 mb/d. “The oil market is showing still timid signs of rebalancing, with global supply exceeding demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran,” the agency writes.

Regarding global oil demand, it is expected to decrease by 2.7 mb/d in 2026, to 102.3 mb/d, before rebounding by 2 mb/d in 2027. In the fourth quarter alone, the year-on-year decline is expected to reduce to 2.7 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2026, while this contraction averaged 4.4 mb/d in the second and third quarters. 2026.

“Global oil demand continues to be penalized by persistent disruptions in exports of refined products and LPG from the Gulf, which remain at around half their pre-war level, as well as by high fuel prices,” underlines the agency. Regarding global oil stocks, “they rebounded by 52 mb (+1.7 mb/d) in October, recording their first increase since June”.