A high-risk Friday for Bercy, and for your crypto wallet. On October 30, INSEE publishes at 7:30 a.m. the first estimate of GDP for the third quarter and household consumption for September. Then, at 8:45 a.m., the provisional inflation for October and the flash estimate of salaried employment fall. The Minister of the Economy Roland Lescure awaits them in a difficult climate. In fact, household confidence fell to 80 in October, the lowest since June 2013. In addition, inflation rose to 3.1% in September.
The bond market is also shaking. The 10-year OAT reached 5% on October 21, a first since 2002. Furthermore, the solemn vote on the revenues of the 2027 budget is set for Tuesday, November 3. However, this section contains the 31.4% taxation of conversions of cryptocurrencies into stablecoins. Zero GDP or inflation above 3% would therefore weigh on the debate of the 54 billion euros effort, on the return on your savings and on the appetite for bitcoin.
Key Points
Friday October 30, INSEE publishes Q3 GDP at 7:30 a.m., then October inflation and salaried employment at 8:45 a.m.
INSEE and the Banque de France expect +0.1% growth after a second quarter of zero.
Inflation reached 3.1% in September, while the Livret A only reported 1.7%.
The November 3 vote on budget 2027 revenue includes the 31.4% tax on crypto-to-stablecoin conversions.
GDP for the third quarter: the French economy is playing zero points
Let's start with the most anticipated number. INSEE and the Banque de France both expect +0.1% between July and September. The first quarter fell by 0.2% and the second stagnated. However, INSEE first announced +0.2% for this second quarter on July 30. He then reduced it to zero on August 28.
Private economists are no happier. In an AFP dispatch from October 28, Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, from Rexecode, also aims for +0.1%. He sees “no growth relay today in the French economy, no engine”. For her part, Charlotte de Montpellier, at ING, speaks of an “accumulation of signals” announcing a new stagnation. Finally, household consumption, published at the same time as GDP, gained 0.4% in July thanks to the heatwave. It then lost 0.5% in August.
A zero or a negative figure would thus cause the government forecast of 0.5% for 2026 to waver. Roland Lescure had already reduced it from 0.7% to this level on September 11. INSEE expects only 0.4% for the year.
October inflation and employment: the price peak in the face of social breakdown
At 8:45 a.m., two numbers fall at the same time. First, inflation: that of September was confirmed at 3.1% over one year on October 15, the highest since the start of 2024. Energy alone showed +21.3%. Rexecode judges the prices “not far from the peak, or even at the peak”. INSEE, for its part, targeted 2.9% in December in its September economic report. Thus, an October figure of 3% or less would support the idea of a plateau. On the other hand, a new peak above 3.1% would increase pressure on the ECB.
The latter makes its decision this Thursday, October 29. It raised its deposit rate in June and then in September, up to 2.50%. Economists polled by Reuters expect a pause this Thursday, then a further increase in December.
Salaried employment completes the picture. According to INSEE, the private sector lost 24,300 jobs in the second quarter and 80,900 over one year. Furthermore, the employment climate fell again by 3 points, to 95, on October 22. A third quarter of destruction would therefore fall in the midst of examination of the 2027 budget. The Minister of Action and Public Accounts, David Amiel, already puts the deterioration in the deficit caused by the votes of deputies at 10 billion euros.
From OAT to Livret A: what the crypto saver is playing on Friday
The link with debt is direct. The 10-year OAT exceeded 5.1% on October 22. It then fell back below 5% on Monday 26, after Moody's maintained its Aa3 rating, with a negative outlook. However, the yield rose again on October 28, to more than 150 basis points above the German Bund. However, zero GDP combined with 3% inflation forms the worst cocktail for a state creditor. Tax revenues are falling, indexed spending is rising and the ECB has no reason to lower its rates.
The first effect for the crypto saver is through the real rate. The Livret A has returned 1.7% since August 1, or 1.4 points less than inflation. Each month at 3% therefore eats into risk-free savings. From then on, bitcoin becomes more visible as a diversification asset. The second effect, however, works in the opposite direction. An OAT above 5% means a higher risk premium everywhere. However, volatile assets, crypto in the lead, are often the first sold in these phases of aversion.
