Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was unusually sharp when he commented on Russia's attack on a train in Ukraine, very close to the Polish border.
- We expect a period of intensive Russian action in the coming weeks. We do not exclude that that escalation will directly affect our territory.
Early on Sunday morning, a locomotive was destroyed in northwestern Ukraine by a drone, two kilometers from Poland. At the same time, a gas station was attacked where a truck caught fire, just a few hundred meters from the border.
The incidents near the border were part of a heavy attack on the western parts of Ukraine, with more than 450 drones and missiles. Poland put fighter jets on standby and Tusk immediately called a meeting with his ministers, military and security services. But beyond his sharp statements, not much happened.
It is symptomatic. When President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asks for arms, he argues that by defending its borders, Ukraine is also fighting for Europe's security.
Russia's war is being waged ever closer to EU and NATO soil and against their representatives and citizens. In Ukraine, the target of the Russian drone attack may have been a different train than the one that was destroyed. On board a passenger train that had just left the station was Britain's former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Sweden's former Prime Minister Carl Bildt also passed the place by train at about the same time; and at the station near the drone strike was former CIA director David Petraeus. All were on their way home from a conference that brings together dozens of international ex-politicians, diplomats, researchers and intellectuals in Kiev every year.
Had the diplomats' train been demolished by a deliberate Russian attack, it would have been an event of enormous scale. Now it was perhaps sheer luck that no one was injured. Yet the immediate reactions from the EU and NATO have been conspicuous by their absence.
So far, Russia's actions have instead been met with patience – or, if you like, with what resembles paralysis of action.
There are many ways to respond to aggression. A drone attack does not have to be met with the same coin, but Russia is probably not deterred by public condemnations and the closing of the occasional Russian consulate in Europe.
Had the diplomats' train been demolished by a deliberate Russian attack, it would have been an event of enormous scale.
But it requires agreement. The EU lacks military power, but has also failed to extend the sanctions of two Russian oligarchs, because they do not agree.
Nor does NATO show the consensus required for a decision of importance. In the United States, most powerful in NATO, President Donald Trump's administration repeatedly shows understanding of Russian perspectives. It was also clear during the conference in Kiev, where mediator Jared Kushner commented on the war on the link and raised the unresolved issue of territories, where Russia also claims areas that it has not succeeded in taking by force.
"President Putin has explained what borders he wants. If Ukraine would like to withdraw to them, then we have the rest of the deal ready. But right now, Ukraine does not want that."
Understood: if Ukraine changes its mind, it's over.
For a long time there has been speculation as to how far Russia is prepared to test the member states' borders. Meanwhile, the intrusions continue. Last week, two people crossing the border between Ukraine and Moldova were killed in a drone attack. A few days later, a weapons factory in Bulgaria was set on fire, a facility that, among other things, manufactures ammunition for Ukraine. The authorities describe the incident as sabotage and do not rule out foreign actors.
In the Polish capital Warsaw, Tusk stressed on Sunday that the country must be "maximum prepared" and stressed the importance of a strong response by its allies. But so far no coherent answers have come. Meanwhile, individual countries' reactions – like those in Poland – lose credibility after each new incident.
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