Why is Donald Trump threatening Iran with new strikes just before the midterms?

Is Donald Trump done with strikes in Iran? The American president leaves doubts lingering as the midterms approach, which are decisive for the rest of his mandate, which take place on Tuesday, November 3. “We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two [nuclear] sites, but we can do that in ten minutes,” declared the President of the United States, Saturday October 31, from his residence in Florida. He pointed out in particular Mount Kolang ("Pickaxe Mountain", in English), near the Natanz nuclear complex, approximately 200 km south of Tehran. These new threats maintain the pressure exerted on Tehran, while the diplomatic route struggles to produce effects.

Neither country has carried out major attacks against land targets since early September, but the Gulf region remains on high alert. Iran regularly targets ships circulating in the Strait of Hormuz, over which it claims absolute control. Tehran recently announced that three ships had exploded and caught fire after hitting mines. The number of tanker passages is, however, increasing, thanks to American escorts organized in the region.

Tehran finds itself effectively isolated by the American counter-blockade imposed on its exports, but the Iranian regime has so far shown resilience in the face of the economic crisis. Nine months after the start of the conflict, triggered by Israeli-American strikes on February 28, American military operations have not produced the political results expected by the Trump administration. Washington is therefore trying to find an agreement to relaunch peace discussions, based on the model of the memorandum of understanding aborted in June, while examining a possible resumption of strikes after the mid-term elections. “The hand of negotiations has been extended and these channels of communication have remained open and active,” said US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Donald Blome. “At the same time we are also ready to take another direction.”

The Qatari mediator recently spoke to J.D. Vance, the vice president of the United States, and General Mohsen Rezai, secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, to encourage a resumption of dialogue. A few days ago, J.D. Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaï in an attempt to relaunch negotiations. “Their tone has completely changed, and this is a good sign which shows that the Iranian nation has consolidated its victory”, reacted the person concerned, without further details.

However, no clearing appears on the horizon. Tehran insists that it will not authorize any exit of enriched uranium from its territory as part of a future agreement. “There will be no negotiations until the United States takes steps to build confidence, a process that must begin with respect for the conditions set by Iran,” Mohsen Rezai said on October 20. Questioned by the Al Jazeera channel on Saturday October 31, the head of Iranian diplomacy, Abbas Araghchi, repeated “not seeing the need for a meeting with the Americans”.

What about in the event of a prolonged blockage? The military card seems difficult to defeat before the mid-term elections. The Republican camp is approaching the deadline in difficulty, due in particular to questions linked to purchasing power and oil prices, which soared after the intervention in the Gulf. Furthermore, the cost of the war in Iran has reached $47.1 billion for American taxpayers, according to a new Pentagon estimate released in mid-October. This staggering amount is notably made up of the renewal of munitions, notably defensive missile interceptors.

Donald Trump could regain the initiative on the issue after the midterms. Even in the event of a setback in the House of Representatives, or even in the Senate, Donald Trump will retain room for maneuver in diplomatic and military matters. “If he loses the elections because of this war, and knowing his profile and his desire for reprisals, he still risks outbidding,” Arman Mahmoudian, teacher and researcher at the University of South Florida, already estimated at the end of August in an interview with franceinfo. “President Donald Trump won’t have much left to lose.”

Several media outlets have already mentioned a possible resumption of strikes against Iran after this deadline. Trump administration officials have also asked Gulf Arab leaders to prepare for a "short and intense campaign" after the elections, says The Wall Street Journal. "We hope for a diplomatic breakthrough. (...) But as we have already shown in the past, we are also ready to face the worst", declared Sunday the diplomatic adviser to the Emirati president Anwar Gargash, during a conference in the capital of Bahrain.

In this uncertain context, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of American forces in the Middle East, made a rare visit to the White House last Thursday to inform Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth of the current situation, according to American media Axios, citing two American officials. These American desires are closely followed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, himself in difficulty after the legislative elections in his country. The leader spoke this week of "a unique historic opportunity with [his] partner President Trump to definitively eliminate the existential threat" from Iran.

It remains to be seen what form new operations could take, given that the United States has already struck more than 13,000 targets during the main phase of the war, between February 28 and early April. “Most [Iranian] conventional military installations have already been heavily damaged” by the strikes, stressed Suzanne Maloney, researcher at the Brookings Institution, an American think tank, to AFP. According to her, new operations would therefore involve “more strikes against civilian infrastructure and targets with a direct impact on the Iranian population”.

The Trump administration has not yet decided on its position, according to American media. It could also continue and accentuate its current strategy of economic pressure, by relying on financial sanctions to force the Iranian regime to accept concessions.

Tehran, in return, regularly threatens Washington with a response in the event of new strikes. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei ordered an update of the targets to include "all types of tangible and intangible assets belonging to the US-Zionist enemy." Iran has already threatened to attack data centers and artificial intelligence systems, as well as submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz. But no one, at this stage, knows the American post-election scenario or its consequences for the region.