Picanha prices rise less under Lula's government than under Bolsonaro, survey shows

Picanha prices continued to rise for consumers during the third Lula (PT) government, but the rate of increase was slower than that observed during the term of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

This is what data from the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) shows, compiled by economist Fábio Romão, from the consultancy 4intelligence, at the request of Folha.

The consumption of the prime cut of beef has become a topic of political debate since the 2022 elections.

In August of that year, Lula said that people would have to "go back to eating a barbecue, eating a picanha and drinking a beer." The statement was made in an interview with Jornal Nacional, on TV Globo.

According to IPCA data collected by Romão, picanha accumulated inflation of 7.8% from January 2023 to August 2026. The interval covers the first 44 months of the PT administration.

There is no data available for 2019, the first year of the former president's term, because picanha only became part of the IPCA calculation in January 2020. Overall, the price of meat rose 32.4% in 2019.

In 2020, the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) made the most recent update of the basket of goods and services researched in the index.

However, the accumulated increase in picanha had been 33.4% in the period from January 2020 to August 2022, on the eve of the last election, and 38% in the period from January 2020 to December 2022, the last month of the Bolsonaro government.

SUPPLY IMPACT INFLATION

Although the discussion has become political in a polarized country, the behavior of picanha prices reflects economic issues in recent years, and not government decisions, points out Romão.

He claims that the greater supply helped contain food inflation, including meat, in Lula's third term.

In 2025, Brazil slaughtered 42.9 million heads of cattle under health inspection services, a record for a historical series that began in 1997, indicated the IBGE last March.

There was an increase of 8.2% compared to 2024, the year of the previous maximum. The growth trend has been observed since 2022, the institute stated.

During the Bolsonaro government, food prices were pressured by shocks from the pandemic and Russia's war against Ukraine, the rise in the dollar and climate problems. The situation affected the cost of commodities used in animal feed.

“What prevails are questions of supply”, says Romão.

DISEASE WITH PRICES

In the economist's view, although the rate of increase in items such as picanha became slower during the Lula government, part of the population shows discomfort associated with the level of prices.

In other words, food prices rose less, but this variation affected a level of costs that already weighed on the family budget.

In August 2026, the average price per kilo of prime meat cuts was R$50.49 in the city of São Paulo, according to a basic food basket survey published by Procon-SP in partnership with Dieese (Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies).

In nominal terms (without adjustment for inflation), the value was R$42.54 in August 2022, before the last presidential elections, and R$23.61 in August 2019, before the pandemic.

According to Dieese, the prime meats analyzed in the research are coxão soft, duckling and a third cut with a lower price than the other two.

FOOD RISES ABOVE GENERAL INDEX SINCE THE PANDEMIC

Romão's survey indicates that food at home increased by 60.8% from April 2020, after the start of the pandemic, to August 2026.

This means that food consumed at home rose more than the IPCA in general terms, which increased by 42.7% in the same period.

Considering only the 44 months of the Lula government (January 2023 to August 2026), food at home accumulated inflation of 12.9%.

It is a lower rate than the 54.2% increase observed in Bolsonaro's first 44 months (January 2019 to August 2022).

Romão states that El Niño is the main risk for food inflation from the end of 2026.

The threat appears on the radar because the climate phenomenon changes the distribution of rainfall. This challenges agricultural production. In case of losses in the field, transfers may occur to the final consumer in the city.

PICANHA BACK TO THE DEBATE

The level of food prices, including picanha, has been used in the presidential campaign of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) as a weapon to try to wear down Lula among the electorate. The PT member is seeking a fourth term in these elections.

Bolsonaro's son even raised a piece of picanha during an appointment in São Paulo and has already declared, in criticism of Lula, that he will not promise to consume this meat and then not fulfill the proposal.

The president's campaign, in turn, has sought to highlight the positive performance of economic indicators since 2023, including employment and income, in addition to citing measures such as the readjustment of the minimum wage above inflation and the defense of the end of the 6x1 scale – six days of work and one day of rest per week.

On Thursday (24), Folha questioned the Social Communication Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic about picanha inflation data, but received no response.

DEBT MAKES ADJUSTMENTS DIFFICULT, SAYS ANALYST

In 2025, Brazil surpassed the United States in beef production for the first time. Thus, in addition to being the largest exporter, the country became the main producer in the world.

In the second quarter of 2026, cattle slaughter rose 1.3% compared to the same period in 2025 and 4% compared to the previous quarter, according to data released by IBGE on September 15.

For Fernando Iglesias, market intelligence coordinator at consultancy Safras & Mercado, the greater supply of meat explains part of the lower inflation for picanha in recent years.

Another influence, according to him, is the rise in family debt, which would create an obstacle to more aggressive readjustments.

"Brazilians cannot absorb the rise in beef. They migrate to other products", says the analyst, citing cheaper substitute proteins, such as chicken, pork, sausages and eggs.

Estimates from Safras & Mercado for the period from 2020 to 2026 indicate that beef consumption fell below 25 kg per inhabitant in 2021 (24.94 kg).

There was a recovery in the following years, with the indicator reaching the level of 30.79 kg in 2024. Consumption remained close to this in 2025 (30.63 kg), but the perspective is for a lower level at the end of 2026 (28.08 kg), according to the consultancy.

Iglesias says that Brazil is heading towards a reversal in the so-called livestock cycle, with less participation of females in slaughter – their retention in herds occurs for reproduction purposes.

The situation tends to reduce meat production as the months go by and is an element capable of keeping prices at a high level in the national market, says the analyst.

"The cuts of beef hindquarters, with the highest added value, such as picanha, rump, breast and filet mignon, remain highly inflated."

WHAT ABOUT BEER?

Beer, also mentioned by Lula in the 2022 campaign, accumulated inflation of 19.5% in the IPCA from January 2023 to August 2026, according to Romão's survey.

It is a similar variation to the 19.2% rate observed from January 2019 to August 2022, under the Bolsonaro government.