Even during the off-season, lemons are more expensive than average for consumers. The reason is the low production, and those who have it charge for the difficulty in guaranteeing the harvest.
"One of the characteristics of lemons is having a very high volatility in its price history, different from what we are used to seeing in other plants. The current moment is a very precarious period, with a special rainy condition that affected flowering at the beginning of the year", researcher Renato Garcia Ribeiro, from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea/Esalq), explained to Agência Brasil.
A survey by the National Supply Company (Conab) shows that in the São Paulo citrus belt, where 80% of national production comes from, the average price paid to the Tahiti lemon producer went from R$32.10 for a 27.2 kg box in June to R$55.60 in July and R$104.78 in August.
The accumulated increase in the period was 226.4%. When comparing the price of a 27.2 kg box paid to the producer in August this year to that in August 2025, the difference was 71% greater for the current year.
The wholesale price in the country's largest warehouse, Ceagesp, in the capital of São Paulo, increased by 374%, quoted at R$ 1.82 per kilo at the beginning of the off-season, in May, and rising to R$ 8.62 at the peak at the end of September, and 240% in CeasaMinas - Grande BH, where the variation was from R$ 2.50 to R$ 8.50.
"Normally, the lemon market works as follows: in January and February there is the peak of the harvest. In March and April production drops, but remains stable, with the start of the off-season proper at the end of May. This period extends until mid-September, when the new harvest begins", explained Conab.
The sudden increase was due to the drop in supply at the beginning of the off-season, compared to previous years, as excess rain affected the quantity and quality that could be sold and the formation of the next harvest. The higher humidity at the beginning of the year, as well as the increase in cloudy days, increased the quantity of lighter fruits and made harvesting difficult.
Added to these factors are the competition between the domestic and foreign markets - we sold around 11% of the harvest, mainly to Europe - and the increase in domestic demand with the heat in August and September.
"The main flowering to make up the supply in the second half of the year, which took place in July, was affected by above-average rains that fell in the main producing regions [Matão and Bebedouro], and this flowering should only generate a relevant volume of fruit from mid-November", explains Conab.
Furthermore, the center points out, this excess rainfall also harmed the setting of fruit from previous flowerings, reducing precisely the quantity of fruit that should alleviate the shortage in September and October.
The most impacted regions were Bebedouro and Matão, municipalities that account for approximately 68% of the belt's lemon and lime production area. Of the fruits produced, 88% are Tahiti lemons. Other areas with less relevance were Limeira, Votuporanga and São José do Rio Preto.
Fruit prices are expected to normalize at the end of the year, with the arrival of the new harvest.
Last week, prices at Ceagesp began to decrease, but it is not possible to say that they will continue this trend.
"The biggest impact was on production volume. We had good previous years, but there was an impact from the weather conditions, which should extend into next year", estimates researcher Renato Ribeiro, from Cepea/Esalq.
There is also, according to experts on the subject, a risk for the next harvest, as a strong El Niño scenario at the beginning of 2027 could increase heat and water deficit, stressing plants and affecting flowering in late spring and early summer.
Conab technicians consider that El Niño had little impact on lemon production this year.
"Even in the month of July, when abnormal rains and winds affected the flowering, the phenomenon was still of low intensity. So we cannot say that it was the main cause of the changes that occurred in this market. We can say that it contributed to this configuration, but it was not the main factor", they assess.
