Weather forecast for autumn in Italy: stable and sunny weather initially, then possible increase in rain

According to the experts at iLMeteo.it, close to the first day of autumn, Italy can expect a "prevalence of stable and sunny weather" which should then last for a good part of next week. Europe in general is divided in two at the turn of the equinox. In the western sectors - therefore also in our country - the situation is one of general stability and "fair weather", thanks to the expansion of the Azores anticyclone and its high pressure. A different discussion must be made for the north-eastern territories, already dealing with colder currents of polar origin, arriving from Scandinavia: there the picture is therefore more unstable, with temperatures that could fall even below the typical averages of the period and widespread rainfall.

The last days of September in Italy will be accompanied by the return of the anticyclone, which will once again push temperatures upwards, probably in the range of +1-3°C compared to the average. However, it is possible that it will rain, even with intense storms, for example in Sicily and Sardinia (provided that the currents do not change the picture in the next few days, bringing the rain to other regions).

Even looking further in time the situation does not change: iLMeteo.it, analyzing the data processed by the European Center for medium-term weather forecasts, speaks of an autumn that will most likely be largely marked by temperatures above the reference averages. This will be especially the case at the beginning of October, which should open with "an averagely mild thermal profile, with sometimes even hot phases".

The autumn that awaits us will not only be hot, but also rainy, again according to Central European forecasts, which indicate a surplus of rainfall in many areas of the Mediterranean basin. On the rainfall front, experts point out that autumn is statistically the season in which, at least in Italy, it rains the most. However, in the coming months this characteristic could be more accentuated than usual, due to the weather conditions that characterized the past summer.

The explanation lies in the surface temperatures of the seas: during the summer they reached record levels and even now they are running at values ​​several degrees higher than average. The heat stored on the surface, explains iLMeteo.it, functions as "a reservoir of potential energy for disturbed systems". In summary, storm cells will arise from the encounter between the first banks of cold air arriving from the North Atlantic or Arctic area with the heat of the sea surfaces. It is not yet known whether the storm cells will transform into superstorm cells, phenomena as short as they are unpredictable, capable of causing enormous damage due to their intensity. The supercell is in fact a particular type of thunderstorm, which has as its main characteristic the presence within it of a rotating ascending current where masses of hot and cold air coexist. To the human eye it is easily recognized by the presence of wall clouds.

It is not yet possible to know precisely which areas will be most affected by the incoming rains, because for the moment we only have long-term forecasts in hand (macroscopic and probabilistic projections), which are unable to go into detail like short-term weather reports.